The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Progresso 13.8%
Draw 25.2%
Pistoiese 61%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.6%
27.7%
53.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.3%
27.3%
54.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
Pistoiese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pistoiese's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoiese than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pistoiese, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Progresso - Pistoiese Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, ⚽,
38', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
78', 2 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).
Progresso is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Pistoiese is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Progresso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Pistoiese is considered a favorite.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Progresso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Progresso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
Watch
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