Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla)

Referee: Perez Borja P. E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Tubi TV


	Puebla		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	5.7	4.25	1.43
	6.2	4.42	1.47
	4.82	3.95	1.63	Watch
	5.92	4.33	1.5
	4.2	4	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↑ (5.02)	4.19 ↑ (4)	1.49 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla
17%

Draw
21.8%

Tijuana
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.2%

22.8%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

20.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Tijuana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tijuana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Puebla - Tijuana Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Machuca Rubio S. G. (G) 26. De Alba L. 6. Fernandez L. 3. Garcia M. 15. Gonzalez J. 22. Lopez Roque I. S. 16. Martinez D. 23. Rodriguez C. 4. Sanchez L. 25. Suarez P. 21. Villegas Aguilar R. I. (C)	1. Madueno A. (G) 7. Borgella R. 3. Enrigue J. 24. Fong M. 11. Fuentes D. 10. Hancar K. 9. Magaia H. 8. Marroquin A. M. 17. Motau A. 4. Ojeda D. 28. Quintos B. (C)
Substitutes
14. Cruz L. 18. Gonzalez J. 52. Hernandez C. 27. Moron V. 8. Oviedo A. J. 19. Perez P. (G) 24. Silva V. 2. Vivanco Escamilla S. X.	22. Bautista E. 26. Claiborne A. 16. Curiel A. 2. Diaz K. 23. Eckhardt A. 21. Hernandez I. 18. Martinez N. 31. Montiel A. (G) 19. Munguia Haros M. 27. Parra L.
Coaches
Morales C.	Romo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Ojeda D. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, De Alba L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Hancar K. ⚽,
54', Suarez P. ↓, Vivanco Escamilla S. X. ↑,
59', Fuentes D. ↓, Martinez N. ↑,
62', Quintos B. 🟨,
65', Borgella R. ↓, Munguia Haros M. ↑,
69', Gonzalez J. ↓, Cruz L. ↑,
70', Sanchez L. 🟨,
80', 1 - 2, Martinez D. (Own goal),
80', Motau A. ↓, Curiel A. ↑,
81', Marroquin A. M. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
83', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
84', Fernandez L. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
84', Sanchez L. ↓, Oviedo A. J. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 0.

Puebla is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tijuana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Puebla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tijuana is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:18. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
12.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Puebla	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Puebla - Tigres UANL	0:3 ✺
29.09.25	Santos Laguna - Puebla	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Puebla - Cruz Azul	0:3 ✺
11.09.25	Querétaro - Puebla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TLLLT
- Club Tijuana Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
10.10.25	Tijuana - Monterrey	1:4 ✺
04.10.25	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	4:3 ✺
25.09.25	Tijuana - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
09.03.25	Puebla - Tijuana	2:2
12.08.24	Tijuana - Puebla	3:2
01.02.24	Tijuana - Puebla	1:1
05.11.23	Puebla - Tijuana	1:3
29.01.23	Tijuana - Puebla	4:1
14.08.22	Puebla - Tijuana	3:2
06.02.22	Puebla - Tijuana	2:0

Puebla - Tijuana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide