Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku)

Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra


	Qarabağ Agdam		Ludogorets Razgrad

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	5	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.75
	1.72	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.74	3.86	4.99
	1.72	3.92	4.68	Watch
	1.65	3.7	4.5
	1.73	3.99	4.9	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2)	3.81 ↑ (3.3)	4.79 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
55.3%

Draw
24.9%

Ludogorets Razgrad
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

28.9%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

28.6%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Qarabağ Agdam's performance.

Ludogorets Razgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Qarabağ Agdam that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.5%	9.9%	12.7%

Qarabağ Agdam - Ludogorets Razgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: Qarabağ Agdam will win (52 of 66 users predict this - 78.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.93% – 88.65%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 29. Vesovic M. 13. Mustafazada B. 81. Medina K. 27. Bayramov T. 6. Romao J. 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 7. Benzia Y. 10. Zoubir A. (C) 18. Juninho	39. Bonmann H. (G) 17. Son 4. Almeida D. 24. Verdon O. 3. Nedyalkov A. (C) 6. Piotrowski J. 23. Duarte D. 30. Pedro Naressi 37. Tekpetey B. 9. Duah K. 11. Caio Vidal
Substitutes
90. Akhundzade N. 66. Andrade P. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 30. Huseynov A. 55. Huseynov B. 24. Isayev A. 17. Keyta H. 12. Mammadzada S. (G) 20. Richard Almeyda 2. Silva M. 19. Xhixha R.	18. Chochev I. 90. Delev S. 14. Gropper D. 67. Hristov D. (G) 15. Kurtulus E. 8. Nedelev T. 1. Padt S. (G) 7. Rick 12. Rwan Seco 10. Tissera M. 16. Witry A. F. 82. Yordanov I.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.	Dermendzhiev G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Romao J. 🟨,
34', Verdon O. 🟨,
41', Juninho 🟨,
45+4', Caio Vidal 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 0 - 1, Almeida D. ⚽, Son (A),
61', Tekpetey B. ↓, Rick ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Juninho ⚽,
67', Bayramov T. ↓, Cafarquliyev E. ↑,
75', Vesovic M. ↓, Silva M. ↑,
75', Benzia Y. ↓, Keyta H. ↑,
82', Piotrowski J. ↓, Chochev I. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Caio Vidal ⚽, Son (A),
89', Caio Vidal 🟨,
90+3', Duarte D. 🟨,
90+4', Duah K. ↓, Kurtulus E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Qarabağ in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Ludogorets is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ludogorets could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Qarabağ have a series of guest games.

In this match Qarabağ is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Qarabağ to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
02.08.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Lincoln Red Imps	5:0 ✺
23.07.24	Lincoln Red Imps - Qarabağ Agdam	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.24	Slaven Belupo - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
09.07.24	Viktoria Plzeň - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW
- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
03.08.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	5:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
31.07.24	Dinamo Minsk - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:0 ✺
24.07.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Dinamo Minsk	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
21.07.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA Sofia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.07.24	Dinamo Batumi - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.06.19	Ludogorets Razgrad - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0
23.06.18	Ludogorets Razgrad - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1

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