Match Info

Super League - Round 17

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium (Qingdao)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Qingdao Hainiu		Chengdu Rongcheng

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.10	1.49	Watch
	5.00	4.20	1.52
	5.40	4.25	1.53	Watch
	5.89	4.60	1.53
	5.79	4.59	1.49	Watch
	5.75	4.55	1.51
	5.75	4.10	1.54	Watch
	5.20	4.40	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.57 ↑ (4.59)	4.35 ↑ (3.93)	1.52 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qingdao Hainiu
16.8%

Draw
21.6%

Chengdu Rongcheng
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

23.8%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

22.8%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qingdao Hainiu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Chengdu Rongcheng has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chengdu Rongcheng's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qingdao Hainiu than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chengdu Rongcheng than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng Predictions

Users Predictions: Chengdu Rongcheng will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Mu Pengfei (G) 16. Li Hailong 4. Jin Yangyang 3. Liu Junshuai 26. Andjelkovic N. (C) 29. Li Suda 31. Luo Senwen 8. Lin Chuangyi 6. Edjouma M. 34. Jin Yonghao 21. Liu Guobao	32. Liu Dianzuo (G) 4. He Yiran 18. Han Pengfei 19. Dong Y. 2. Hu H. 16. Yang Ming-Yang 23. Liao Lisheng 7. Wei Shihao (C) 10. Romulo 11. Wellington Silva 9. Felipe Silva
Substitutes
30. Che Shiwei 43. Jappar M. (G) 33. Liu Jiashen 1. Liu Jun (G) 9. Liu Xinyu 24. Ngan Cheuk-Pan 23. Song Long 14. Sun Zheng'ao 17. Wang Qiao 37. Wei Zixian 22. Yang Cong 47. Zheng Cuanhui	27. Abduweli Behram 39. Gan Chao 1. Jian Tao (G) 3. Jojo A. C. 58. Liao Rongxiang 48. Li Moyu 22. Li Y. 25. Muzepper Murahmetjan 45. Qeyser Ezimet 15. Ran Weifeng (G) 17. Wang Dongsheng 20. Wang Ziming
Coaches
Ristic M.	Aloisi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Li Hailong ↓, Yang Cong ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Yang Ming-Yang ⚽, Felipe Silva (A),
65', Andjelkovic N. ↓, Wang Qiao ↑,
81', Lin Chuangyi ↓, Liu Xinyu ↑,
81', Liao Lisheng ↓, Gan Chao ↑,
81', Felipe Silva ↓, Abduweli Behram ↑,
81', Dong Y. ↓, Li Y. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Yang Cong ⚽,
88', He Yiran ↓, Wang Dongsheng ↑,
89', Li Suda ↓, Song Long ↑,
90+10', Abduweli Behram 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Hainiu won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Chengdu Rongcheng is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Qingdao Hainiu: Strandberg C. (Injury) Wei Zixian (Injury)

There will not play in Chengdu Rongcheng: Sorokin E. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Qingdao Hainiu: El Messaoudi A. (Injury) Luo Senwen (Injury) Song Wenjie (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Hainiu won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:16. (average 0.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Qingdao Hainiu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.3:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	26	15	7	4	51:30	21	52
16	Qingdao Hainiu	26	6	3	17	34:53	-19	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qingdao Hainiu
Chinese Super League
26.06.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Yunnan Yukun	4:2 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Wuxi Wugou - Qingdao Hainiu	2:3 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
30.05.26	Shenzhen Peng City - Qingdao Hainiu	3:2 ✺
24.05.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:1 ✺
20.05.26	Liaoning Tieren - Qingdao Hainiu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLLL
- Chengdu Rongcheng
Chinese Super League
27.06.26	Shenzhen Peng City - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:3 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Shanghai Zetian - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:4 ✺
Chinese Super League
30.05.26	Chengdu Rongcheng - Shandong Taishan	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Dalian Young Boy - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:0 ✺
19.05.26	Chengdu Rongcheng - Shanghai Port	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
15.03.26	Chengdu Rongcheng - Qingdao Hainiu	1:0
16.08.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Qingdao Hainiu	0:0
Chinese FA Cup
23.07.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2
Chinese Super League
12.04.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:1
26.06.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:5
02.03.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Qingdao Hainiu	2:0
04.08.23	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	3:2

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