Match Info

Super League - Round 16

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Location: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium (Qingdao)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu


	Qingdao Hainiu		Yunnan Yukun

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.6	2.3	Watch
	2.75	3.40	2.25
	2.72	3.55	2.32	Watch
	2.78	3.75	2.39
	2.66	3.67	2.37	Watch
	2.7	3.55	2.3
	2.74	3.65	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3.6	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.49)	3.6 ↑ (3.56)	2.34 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qingdao Hainiu
34.1%

Draw
26%

Yunnan Yukun
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

25.9%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

25.8%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qingdao Hainiu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Yunnan Yukun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qingdao Hainiu than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yunnan Yukun than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	30.8%	38.5%

Qingdao Hainiu - Yunnan Yukun Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Qingdao Hainiu will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Yunnan Yukun will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yunnan Yukun: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Mu Pengfei (G) 17. Wang Qiao 4. Jin Yangyang 26. Andjelkovic N. (C) 29. Li Suda 6. Edjouma M. 31. Luo Senwen 11. El Messaoudi A. 8. Lin Chuangyi 34. Jin Yonghao 19. Song Wenjie	23. Wang Zhifeng (G) 25. Deng Hanwen 18. Yi Teng 5. Shi Ke 19. Huang Zichang 7. Ye Chugui 6. Zhao Yuhao (C) 10. Ionita II A. 34. Caio Vinicius 11. Taty Maritu O. 9. Cleber
Substitutes
30. Che Shiwei 43. Jappar M. (G) 16. Li Hailong 21. Liu Guobao 1. Liu Jun (G) 3. Liu Junshuai 9. Liu Xinyu 24. Ngan Cheuk-Pan 23. Song Long 14. Sun Zheng'ao 22. Yang Cong 47. Zheng Cuanhui	39. Abdusalam Bunyamin 1. Bao Yaxiong (G) 36. Fei Ernanduo 27. Han Zilong 4. Li Songyi 30. Saeter J. 17. Sun Xuelong 3. Tsui Wang-Kit 24. Yu Jianxian (G) 26. Zhang Chenliang 16. Zhang Xiangshuo 15. Zhang Yufeng

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Song Wenjie ⚽, Jin Yonghao (A),
19', 1 - 1, Taty Maritu O. ⚽, Ye Chugui (A),
26', 2 - 1, Lin Chuangyi ⚽, Song Wenjie (A),
30', 2 - 2, Cleber ⚽, Caio Vinicius (A),
36', Li Suda 🟨,
40', 3 - 2, Edjouma M. ⚽,
45+5', 4 - 2, El Messaoudi A. ⚽, Song Wenjie (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Li Suda ↓, Song Long ↑,
52', Caio Vinicius 🟨,
61', Yi Teng ↓, Zhang Chenliang ↑,
63', Luo Senwen ↓, Ngan Cheuk-Pan ↑,
63', Song Wenjie ↓, Liu Xinyu ↑,
63', Wang Qiao 🟨,
70', Deng Hanwen ↓, Abdusalam Bunyamin ↑,
70', Zhao Yuhao ↓, Tsui Wang-Kit ↑,
71', Jin Yonghao 🟨,
73', Wang Qiao ↓, Li Hailong ↑,
77', El Messaoudi A. ↓, Liu Guobao ↑,
85', Ye Chugui ↓, Han Zilong ↑,
89', Huang Zichang 🟨,
90+2', Mu Pengfei 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 4).

Qingdao Hainiu is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Yunnan Yukun has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Qingdao Hainiu has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Qingdao Hainiu: Jin Yonghao (Injury) Strandberg C. (Injury) Wei Zixian (Injury) Yeboah Y. (Red Card)

There will not play in Yunnan Yukun: Burca A. (Yellow Cards) Tsui Wang-Kit (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Yunnan Yukun: Caio Vinicius (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Hainiu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Qingdao Hainiu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Yunnan Yukun	26	11	5	10	54:51	3	38
16	Qingdao Hainiu	26	6	3	17	34:53	-19	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qingdao Hainiu
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Wuxi Wugou - Qingdao Hainiu	2:3 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
30.05.26	Shenzhen Peng City - Qingdao Hainiu	3:2 ✺
24.05.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:1 ✺
20.05.26	Liaoning Tieren - Qingdao Hainiu	2:1 ✺
15.05.26	Beijing Guoan - Qingdao Hainiu	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLLLL
- Yunnan Yukun
Chinese FA Cup
21.06.26	Suzhou Dongwu - Yunnan Yukun	2:4 ✺
Chinese Super League
31.05.26	Wuhan Three Towns - Yunnan Yukun	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Yunnan Yukun - Qingdao West Coast	2:3 ✺
20.05.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Yunnan Yukun - Shanghai Shenhua	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
07.03.26	Yunnan Yukun - Qingdao Hainiu	3:1
09.08.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Yunnan Yukun	5:1
06.04.25	Yunnan Yukun - Qingdao Hainiu	1:0

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