Match Info

Jia League - Round 16

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Qingdao Tiantai Stadium (Qingdao)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Qingdao Red Lions		Chongqing Tongliang Long

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.5	3.5	1.53
	6.7	4.05	1.4	Watch
	7.65	4.23	1.4
				Watch
	6	3.5	1.55
	7.9	4.3	1.35
	5.4	3.9	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.53 ↑ (5.4)	3.91 ↑ (3.9)	1.46 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qingdao Red Lions
14%

Draw
23.3%

Chongqing Tongliang Long
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

23.3%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

23%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qingdao Red Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Chongqing Tongliang Long has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qingdao Red Lions than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chongqing Tongliang Long than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Qingdao Red Lions - Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Qingdao Red Lions will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Chongqing will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chongqing (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Li Ya'nan (G) 2. Song Bowei 20. Nie Aoshuang (C) 16. Zhang Yixuan 4. Zhao Chengle 23. Zhang Liang 10. Leandro Alves 7. Nobrega J. 30. Zhou Jianyi 37. Chen Hao-Wei 11. Sun Xipeng	1. Yao Haoyang (C) 2. Wang Wenxuan 4. Sadauskas R. 38. Ruan Qilong 18. Tian Xiangyu 16. Zhang Zhixiong 14. Huang Xiyang 8. Li Zhenquan 26. He Xiaoqiang 9. Leonardo 7. Xiang Yuwang
Substitutes
15. Hao Yucheng 22. Iskandar B. 8. Jia Xiaochen 5. Liu Pujin 29. Liu Xiaoqi 36. Lu K. 40. Pi Ziyang 24. Song Runtong 13. Tao Yuan 21. Zeng Yi (G) 6. Zheng Haokun 1. Zhu Quan (G)	30. Bai Yutao 40. Carrillo J. 33. Cheng Yetong 5. Huang X. 22. Ma Yujun 20. Osmanjan Abduhelil 21. Song Pan 15. Tong Zhicheng 27. Wu Yongqiang 31. Wu Zitong (G) 32. Yerzat Yerjet (G)
Coaches
Castro F.	Suay S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
20', Zhang Yixuan ↓, Hao Yucheng ↑,
26', 0 - 1, Xiang Yuwang ⚽, Leonardo (A),
28', 1 - 1, Leandro Alves ⚽, Hao Yucheng (A),
31', Yao Haoyang 🟨,
37', 2 - 1, Leandro Alves (Pen),
41', Zhang Liang 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 2, Xiang Yuwang ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Tian Xiangyu ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
56', Chen Hao-Wei ↓, Lu K. ↑,
65', Li Ya'nan ↓, Zhu Quan ↑,
71', Huang Xiyang ↓, Wu Yongqiang ↑,
74', Hao Yucheng 🟨,
80', 3 - 2, Lu K. ⚽, Nobrega J. (A),
81', Xiang Yuwang 🟨,
84', Song Bowei ↓, Liu Pujin ↑,
84', Leandro Alves ↓, Tao Yuan ↑,
84', Zhou Jianyi ↓, Zheng Haokun ↑,
85', Ruan Qilong ↓, Bai Yutao ↑,
89', 3 - 3, Xiang Yuwang (Pen),
90+3', 3 - 4, Carrillo J. ⚽, Li Zhenquan (A),
90+9', Bai Yutao 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Yi League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League).

Qingdao Red Lions is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Chongqing has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Chongqing is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Red Lions won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Qingdao Red Lions won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qingdao Red Lions
Chinese Jia League
05.07.25	Qingdao Red Lions - Shenzhen Juniors	0:2 ✺
29.06.25	Guangdong GZ-Power - Qingdao Red Lions	0:0 ✺
22.06.25	Nanjing City - Qingdao Red Lions	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Qingdao Red Lions - Shaanxi Union	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Guangxi Pingguo Haliao - Qingdao Red Lions	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTLTL
- Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chinese Jia League
06.07.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Ningbo Professional	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Suzhou Dongwu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	1:3 ✺
21.06.25	Shijiazhuang Gongfu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	3:1 ✺
14.06.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Dalian Kun City	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Foshan Nanshi - Chongqing Tongliang Long	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
15.03.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Qingdao Red Lions	1:1
21.07.24	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Qingdao Red Lions	1:1
23.03.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Chongqing Tongliang Long	1:0
Chinese Yi League
15.10.23	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Qingdao Red Lions	0:0
03.09.23	Qingdao Red Lions - Chongqing Tongliang Long	1:0

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