Match Info

Super League - Round 10

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi (Navoiy)


	Qizilqum		Pakhtakor

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.77
	4.3	3.25	1.78
	4.45	3.35	1.86
	4.41	3.26	1.8	Watch
	4.46	3.26	1.86
	4.3	3.25	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↓ (4.56)	3.26 (3.26)	1.81 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qizilqum
21.2%

Draw
28.1%

Pakhtakor
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

28.2%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

27.7%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qizilqum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Pakhtakor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qizilqum than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pakhtakor than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Qizilqum - Pakhtakor Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kuvvatov S. (G) 4. Vakhobov I. 23. Shukurillaev S. 15. Kumburovic N. 88. Mijic D. 18. Bekmuradov F. 8. Rakhmatullaev S. 70. Masovic A. 11. Jigauri J. 77. Jumankuziev F. 99. Lobjanidze E.	12. Nazarov V. (G) 4. Abdullaev A. 55. Abdumazhidov M. 20. Abdullaev D. 22. Adkhamzoda U. 27. Sobirkhuzhaev S. 9. Ibrokhimov I. 7. Alizhonov K. 6. Urinboev M. 21. Resan B. 11. Sergeev I.
Substitutes
9. Abdualimov K. 7. Anvarov D. 71. Bakhshilloev A. 19. Kenzhaev I. 10. Paparyga R. 33. Rahmatov S. 30. Rakhmatov F. (G) 22. Turopov S. 6. Usmonov M.	23. Buriev A. 19. Jhonatan (G) 17. Khamdamov D. 5. Khamraliev M. 99. Khoshimov U. 44. Makhamadzhonov M. 15. Ortikboev D. 94. Riascos B. 77. Saitov D.
Coaches
Lazarevic N.	Moreira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Sergeev I. (Pen),
31', Abdumazhidov M. 🟨,
45+5', Jumankuziev F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Alizhonov K. ↓, Saitov D. ↑,
60', Jumankuziev F. ↓, Paparyga R. ↑,
63', Lobjanidze E. 🟨,
68', Resan B. ↓, Riascos B. ↑,
69', Kumburovic N. 🟨,
73', 0 - 2, Urinboev M. ⚽, Sergeev I. (A),
76', Rakhmatullaev S. ↓, Anvarov D. ↑,
78', Urinboev M. ↓, Khamdamov D. ↑,
80', Bekmuradov F. ↓, Turopov S. ↑,
82', Sobirkhuzhaev S. ↓, Buriev A. ↑,
83', Abdumazhidov M. ↓, Khamraliev M. ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Khamdamov D. ⚽, Riascos B. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qizilqum won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pakhtakor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pakhtakor is seen as the favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Qizilqum won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:39. (average 0.8:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Qizilqum won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.8:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qizilqum PFK
Uzbek League
11.05.25	Mashal Mubarek - Qizilqum	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Qizilqum - Navbahor Namangan	3:2 ✺
27.04.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Qizilqum	4:0 ✺
18.04.25	Qizilqum - Kokand 1912	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Bunyodkor - Qizilqum	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLWT
- Pakhtakor Tashkent
Uzbek League
10.05.25	Pakhtakor - Buxoro	6:0 ✺
03.05.25	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Pakhtakor - Shurtan Guzar	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Neftchi Fargona - Pakhtakor	0:4 ✺
13.04.25	Pakhtakor - Andijan	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
26.10.24	Qizilqum - Pakhtakor	2:0
25.05.24	Pakhtakor - Qizilqum	1:1
29.08.23	Qizilqum - Pakhtakor	2:3
10.04.23	Pakhtakor - Qizilqum	3:1
07.11.22	Pakhtakor - Qizilqum	6:0
23.06.22	Qizilqum - Pakhtakor	0:2
16.10.21	Pakhtakor - Qizilqum	4:2

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