Match Info

Championship - Relegation - Semi-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Palmerston Park (Dumfries) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	Premier Sports Player


	Queen of the South		Stenhousemuir

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	2.9
	2.28	3.3	2.98
	2.31	3.35	3.23
	2.28	3.22	3.19	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3
	2.17	3.28	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.28)	3.28 ↑ (3.18)	3.05 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queen of the South
41.3%

Draw
28.3%

Stenhousemuir
30.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.4%

29%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

28%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queen of the South has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Stenhousemuir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queen of the South than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Queen of the South will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Stenhousemuir will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Queen of the South: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Queen of the South (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Queen of the South (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stewart R. (G) 2. Hewitt M. 6. Hannah J. 5. Douglas M. (C) 16. MacKenzie Z. 8. Luissint B. 4. Lyon R. 10. Kennedy K. 88. Clark N. 7. Smith L. 11. Dickenson B.	1. Jamieson D. (G) 6. Graham A. 21. Ewen K. 4. Buchanan G. (C) 14. Bilham K. 17. Anderson M. 23. McGill S. 22. Whyte O. 7. O'Reilly E. 9. Aitken M. 15. Carrick D.
Substitutes
9. Allan J. 26. Green L. (G) 28. Guthrie K. 14. Johnstone B. 20. Mason S. 15. Rogerson N. 21. Ross E. 18. Stott J.	12. Cameron Z. 24. Grant L. 10. Gray F. 34. Lyle C. (G) 8. Robson F. 3. Simpson O. 11. Taylor R.
Coaches
Murphy P.	Naysmith G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Buchanan G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dickenson B. ↓, Stott J. ↑,
59', Buchanan G. 🟨,
62', Carrick D. ↓, Grant L. ↑,
69', Whyte O. ↓, Taylor R. ↑,
74', Luissint B. 🟨,
75', Hewitt M. 🟨,
77', Luissint B. ↓, Guthrie K. ↑,
82', Graham A. 🟨,
85', O'Reilly E. ↓, Cameron Z. ↑,
85', Anderson M. ↓, Robson F. ↑,
86', Stott J. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Lyon R. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Queen of the South won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Queen of the South won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:9. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Queen of the South won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Stenhousemuir	12	7	2	3	13:9	4	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queen of the South
Scottish League One
02.05.26	Alloa Athletic - Queen of the South	1:4 ✺
25.04.26	Queen of the South - Montrose	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Peterhead - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Queen of the South - Cove Rangers	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Kelty Hearts - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTTWT
- Stenhousemuir
Scottish League One
02.05.26	Montrose - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cove Rangers - Stenhousemuir	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Inverness	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Hamilton Academical	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
07.03.26	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	1:1
03.01.26	Stenhousemuir - Queen of the South	2:0
01.11.25	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	1:1
23.08.25	Stenhousemuir - Queen of the South	0:0
26.04.25	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	2:0
08.02.25	Stenhousemuir - Queen of the South	2:1
14.12.24	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	2:1

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