Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio La Corregidora (Querétaro)

Referee: Morfin Verduzco E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV


	Querétaro		Toluca

	1	X	2
	9.8	5.5	1.21
	12.91	6.37	1.2
	10.82	5.95	1.24	Watch
	10	5	1.2
	10	5.7	1.21
	12	5.75	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.92 ↑ (5.07)	5.71 ↑ (4.19)	1.21 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Querétaro
8.4%

Draw
16%

Toluca
75.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

21.4%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Querétaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Querétaro's form might have worsened.

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Querétaro - Toluca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alemany M. (G) 22. Carmona E. 9. Cecena S. 20. Figueroa B. 16. Flores E. 2. Martinez Caro N. S. 11. Molina D. 24. Moran L. 3. Perez M. 43. Rodriguez D. 7. Santamaria E.	12. Martinez V. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 10. Cuevas B. 23. Diaz B. 16. Fernandez L. 11. Guatemala D. 99. Le Sommer E. 2. Martinez K. 25. Robert F. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 6. Vazquez S.
Substitutes
6. Barone F. 55. Calderon L. 90. Cervantes Z. 70. Flores A. 14. Gonzalez V. 18. Grant G. 1. Lozoya C. (G) 50. Ramirez Padilla F. 19. Robles Partida J.	5. Erceg A. 8. Fernandez K. 3. Lopez J. 13. Lopez V. 1. Meza Acosta A. L. (G) 26. Munoz I. 29. Pavi M. 7. Peraza C. 9. Roman M.
Coaches
Mejia E.	Lair P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Le Sommer E. 🟨,
25', Molina D. 🟨,
31', Figueroa B. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Diaz B. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Cecena S. ⚽,
45', Flores E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Molina D. ↓, Cervantes Z. ↑,
46', Figueroa B. ↓, Gonzalez V. ↑,
46', Rodriguez Perez Y. ↓, Erceg A. ↑,
46', Robert F. ↓, Pavi M. ↑,
46', Vazquez S. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
59', Rodriguez D. ↓, Grant G. ↑,
67', Santamaria E. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
68', Munoz I. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
75', Moran L. ↓, Robles Partida J. ↑,
75', Gonzalez V. 🟨,
82', 1 - 2, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
90', 1 - 3, Roman M. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 4, Le Sommer E. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 3.

Querétaro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Querétaro won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Querétaro - the odds 5.07 are the expected chance of winning is 17.7%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Querétaro FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
21.01.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Querétaro - Monterrey	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Pachuca - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
04.01.26	UNAM - Querétaro	4:1 ✺
31.10.25	Juárez - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
21.01.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Puebla - Toluca	0:1 ✺
12.01.26	Toluca - Atlas	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Toluca - Tijuana	5:3 ✺
09.11.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
31.08.25	Toluca - Querétaro	2:0
20.01.25	Toluca - Querétaro	1:2
18.08.24	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0
11.04.24	Toluca - Querétaro	1:2
01.09.23	Querétaro - Toluca	1:2
23.01.23	Toluca - Querétaro	0:1
22.09.22	Querétaro - Toluca	2:3

Querétaro - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide