Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 28

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Quilmes		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	3	2.55	3	Watch
	2.65	2.6	2.9
	2.88	2.58	2.88	Watch
	2.96	2.62	3.04
	2.91	2.54	3.01	Watch
	2.75	2.5	3
	2.97	2.53	2.97	Watch
	2.42	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.38)	2.64 ↓ (3.2)	2.95 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Quilmes
33.1%

Draw
35.3%

San Miguel
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

28.6%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Quilmes's form might have worsened.

San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Quilmes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Quilmes - San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 3 - 25%). San Miguel will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glellel E. (G) 4. Perez F. 2. Tevez F. 6. Padilla M. 3. Allende L. 8. Kalinski E. 5. Ramirez I. (C) 7. Roseti M. 10. Carabajal G. 9. Coronel J. 11. Kaprof J.	1. Sappa D. (G) 4. Kippes A. 2. Parnisari E. 6. D. Renteria 3. Corda S. 8. Mosca C. 5. Cravero T. 7. Antunes I. 11. Ferrero J. 9. Nasta B. 10. Dening E.
Substitutes
17. Capano J. 14. Flores F. 12. Herrera L. 13. Juarez M. 16. Martinez R. 19. Mino M. 15. Postigo J. 18. Santiago M. 20. Vazquez G.	14. Adin D. 15. Cazula A. 13. Grance I. 20. Lavezzi A. 12. Lungarzo J. (G) 16. Rojas M. 19. Salto C. 17. Sena F. 18. Sosa D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Corda S. 🟨,
28', Allende L. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
38', D. Renteria 🟨,
45+1', D. Renteria 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Corda S. 🟨,
57', Mosca C. ↓, Grance I. ↑,
57', Nasta B. ↓, Sena F. ↑,
60', Perez F. 🟨,
64', Perez F. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
70', Sappa D. 🟨,
74', Dening E. ↓, Salto C. ↑,
74', Ferrero J. ↓, Lavezzi A. ↑,
80', Padilla M. 🟨,
81', Padilla M. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
81', Kalinski E. ↓, Mino M. ↑,
81', Kaprof J. ↓, Vazquez G. ↑,
89', Ramirez I. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 0, Coronel J. ⚽,
90+4', Cravero T. ↓, Sosa D. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Vazquez G. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Quilmes is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Miguel is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Quilmes has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Quilmes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.08.25	Los Andes - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
11.08.25	Racing de Córdoba - Quilmes	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Quilmes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
30.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	3:1 ✺
25.07.25	Colegiales - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.08.25	San Miguel - Racing de Córdoba	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	San Miguel - Colegiales	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	5:2 ✺
19.07.25	San Miguel - All Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.25	San Miguel - Quilmes	2:2
27.10.24	Quilmes - San Miguel	1:1
08.06.24	San Miguel - Quilmes	1:0

Upcoming Matches