Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 20

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn)

Referee: Llobet F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Madryn		Quilmes

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.1	7.5	Watch
	1.68	3.1	5.75
	1.72	2.92	5.9	Watch
	1.67	3.12	7.56
				Watch
	1.65	3.2	6
	1.74	2.9	6.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.71)	3.06 ↓ (3.16)	6.47 ↑ (5.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Madryn
55.2%

Draw
30.4%

Quilmes
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

29.5%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

28.6%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Madryn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Deportivo Madryn will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Madryn: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Madryn (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Quilmes (3.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Madryn (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Quilmes (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonnin Y. (C) 4. Sosa A. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Postel S. 3. Martinez D. 8. Perez B. 5. Recalde F. 11. Rivero G. 7. Crego D. 9. Silba L. 10. Solis N.	1. Glellel E. (G) 4. Perez F. 3. Juarez M. 2. Flores F. 11. Bindella A. 6. Tevez F. 5. Ramirez I. (C) 10. Roseti M. 7. Benzi T. 8. Santiago M. 9. Belinetz O.
Substitutes
20. Ayala E. 16. Bustos A. 12. Hass J. (G) 18. Juncos B. 19. Mana N. 13. Mansilla M. 14. Minissale P. 17. Montagna E. 15. Pruzzo L.	19. Allende L. 17. Capano J. 12. Herrera L. 16. Kalinski E. 13. Luna S. 14. Martinez R. 18. Mino M. 15. Postigo J. 20. Schultz E.
Coaches
Gracian L.	Duscher A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Perez B. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Crego D. ⚽,
45', Belinetz O. 🟨,
45', Solis N. 🟨,
45', Flores F. 🟨,
45+1', Recalde F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Juarez M. ↓, Allende L. ↑,
46', Santiago M. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
46', Benzi T. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
65', Silba L. ↓, Mana N. ↑,
65', Solis N. ↓, Montagna E. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Martinez R. ⚽,
73', Capano J. 🟨,
75', Rivero G. ↓, Ayala E. ↑,
75', Perez B. ↓, Bustos A. ↑,
80', Roseti M. 🟨,
84', 3 - 1, Mana N. ⚽,
86', Perez F. ↓, Kalinski E. ↑,
86', Bindella A. ↓, Schultz E. ↑,
86', 🟨,
87', Giacopuzzi F. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
90', Crego D. ↓, Juncos B. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

Deportivo Madryn is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Quilmes has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Deportivo Madryn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportivo Madryn is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Madryn won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Club Almagro	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	San Miguel - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
20.06.25	Racing de Córdoba - Deportivo Madryn	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTWTW
- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.07.25	Colegiales - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Quilmes - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
12.07.25	All Boys - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
05.07.25	San Lorenzo - Quilmes	1:0 penalties ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.06.25	Quilmes - Deportivo Maipú	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.02.25	Quilmes - Deportivo Madryn	1:1
05.08.23	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	0:0
03.04.23	Quilmes - Deportivo Madryn	2:0
Copa Argentina
07.09.22	Quilmes - Deportivo Madryn	2:1 penalties
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.09.22	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	1:1

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