Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Daugavas stadions (Riga)

Referee: Glova F. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Select 1
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 3
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 3, ESPN
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 7
Germany	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 10, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Turkey	TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, VIX App


	RFS		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	9	6	1.25
	11	5.75	1.27
	11	6	1.28
	10	6	1.29
	9.45	5.79	1.3	Watch
	10	5.8	1.29
	11.3	6.69	1.29
	11	6	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.34 ↑ (6.42)	6 ↑ (5.3)	1.28 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RFS
9.3%

Draw
16%

Galatasaray
74.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

18.6%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

19.5%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RFS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RFS's form might have worsened.

Galatasaray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Galatasaray's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RFS than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RFS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Galatasaray, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.6%	9.2%	86.2%

RFS - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: Galatasaray will win (56 of 64 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.4% – 95.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ondoa F. (G) 11. Savalnieks R. 23. Prenga H. 43. Lipuscek Z. (C) 30. Njie H. 27. Markhiev A. 26. Panic S. 8. Odisharia L. 9. Ikaunieks J. 17. Kouadio C. 15. Ndjiki R.	19. Guvenc G. (G) 23. Ayhan K. 6. Sanchez D. 42. Bardakci A. 4. Jakobs I. 34. Torreira L. 20. Gabriel Sara 11. Akgun Y. 10. Mertens D. 53. Yilmaz B. A. 9. Icardi M. (C)
Substitutes
2. Balodis D. 49. Kigurs M. 22. Lemajic D. 25. Mares P. 3. Osuagwu V. 77. Silagadze L. 1. Steinbors P. (G) 21. Stuglis E. 16. Vilkovs S. (G) 18. Zelenkovs D.	83. Akman E. 90. Baltaci M. 44. Batshuayi M. 8. Demirbay K. 30. Demir Y. 24. Jelert E. 18. Kutlu B. 67. Lus B. 25. Nelsson V. 38. Ordu A. (G) 12. Sen B. (G) 60. Yukseloglu H.
Coaches
Morozs V.	Buruk O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Mertens D. ⚽,
18', Akgun Y. 🟨,
26', Ndjiki R. ↓, Zelenkovs D. ↑,
31', Panic S. 🟨,
38', 0 - 2, Akgun Y. ⚽, Sanchez D. (A),
40', 1 - 2, Ikaunieks J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Savalnieks R. ↓, Balodis D. ↑,
55', 2 - 2, Odisharia L. ⚽, Ikaunieks J. (A),
64', Ayhan K. ↓, Batshuayi M. ↑,
77', Torreira L. ↓, Demirbay K. ↑,
77', Kouadio C. ↓, Osuagwu V. ↑,
83', Ikaunieks J. 🟨,
85', Demirbay K. 🟨,
86', Bardakci A. ↓, Kutlu B. ↑,
86', Mertens D. ↓, Demir Y. ↑,
90+4', Odisharia L. ↓, Stuglis E. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Daugavas stadions.

RFS is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Galatasaray is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

RFS could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Galatasaray have a series of home games.

In this match Galatasaray is absolute favorite.

There will not play in RFS: Diomande I. (Knee Injury) Jatta A. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Galatasaray: Muslera F. (Red Card) Sallai R. (Inactive) Ziyech H. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in RFS: Emerson Deocleciano (Leg Injury) Kigurs M. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Galatasaray: Osimhen V. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK RFS
Latvian Virsliga
30.09.24	Jelgava - RFS	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.09.24	FCSB - RFS	4:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
23.09.24	RFS - Riga	2:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
20.09.24	RFS - Liepāja	2:0 ✺
17.09.24	RFS - BFC Daugavpils	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 49.8 WLWWW
- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
28.09.24	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Galatasaray - PAOK	3:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
21.09.24	Fenerbahçe - Galatasaray	1:3 ✺
17.09.24	Galatasaray - Gaziantep	3:1 ✺
14.09.24	Galatasaray - Çaykur Rizespor	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWWW

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