Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: LNK Sporta Parks (Riga)

Referee: Chivulete A. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV
Latvia	TV4


	RFS		Levadia Tallinn

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	4.75	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.4
	1.57	4.25	5.25
				Watch
	1.4	4.5	6
	1.55	4.36	5.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.35)	4.39 ↓ (4.96)	5.55 ↓ (7.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RFS
61.9%

Draw
21.3%

Levadia Tallinn
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

18.7%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

17.8%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RFS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RFS's form might have worsened.

Levadia Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RFS than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RFS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Levadia Tallinn than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

RFS - Levadia Tallinn Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - RFS (1.68) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Levadia (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RFS will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RFS will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. RFS (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Levadia (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Maric M. (G) 11. Savalnieks R. 23. Prenga H. 43. Lipuscek Z. (C) 18. Zelenkovs D. 10. Ikaunieks J. 30. Njie H. 26. Panic S. 8. Odisharia L. 22. Lemajic D. 9. Ikaunieks D.	99. Vallner K. (G) 7. Tur E. 35. Iboro V. 4. Tammik T. 2. Schjonning-Larsen M. 15. Mavretic T. (C) 11. Ainsalu M. 14. Agyiri E. 36. Joao Pedro 19. Musaba R. 9. Tambedou B.
Substitutes
71. Diedhiou B. 41. Karashima Y. 25. Mares P. 16. Nerugals J. (G) 77. Porsan Clemente J. 21. Stuglis E. 70. Talla M. 4. Veips R. 13. Vilkovs S. (G) 37. Wouter T.	18. Alexandre 1. Ani O. (G) 8. Bah M. 45. Jarvelaid H. 17. Kirss R. 10. Lepistu B. 23. Liivak F. 5. Roosnupp M. 41. Skvortsov M. 28. Torres C. 24. Zakarlyuka A.
Coaches
Morozs V.	Torres C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Prenga H. ↓, Stuglis E. ↑,
27', Schjonning-Larsen M. 🟨,
33', Tur E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Torres C. 🟨,
65', Ikaunieks D. ↓, Diedhiou B. ↑,
68', 1 - 0, Panic S. ⚽, Savalnieks R. (A),
71', Joao Pedro 🟨,
72', Agyiri E. ↓, Torres C. ↑,
72', Tur E. ↓, Liivak F. ↑,
75', Odisharia L. 🟨,
79', Ainsalu M. ↓, Kirss R. ↑,
80', Joao Pedro ↓, Roosnupp M. ↑,
81', Odisharia L. ↓, Talla M. ↑,
88', Musaba R. ↓, Skvortsov M. ↑,
90+2', Mavretic T. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

RFS has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Levadia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Levadia has had a series of home games.

In this match, RFS is the clear favorite.

We predict that RFS will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, RFS won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK RFS
UEFA Champions League
08.07.25	Levadia Tallinn - RFS	0:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
04.07.25	RFS - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
30.06.25	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:7 ✺
26.06.25	Jelgava - RFS	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	RFS - Auda Riga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW
- Levadia Tallinn
UEFA Champions League
08.07.25	Levadia Tallinn - RFS	0:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.25	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	0:3 ✺
27.06.25	Levadia Tallinn - Narva Trans	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	3:1 ✺
18.06.25	Levadia Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.07.25	Levadia Tallinn - RFS	0:1

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