Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow (Częstochowa)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 4
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Raków Częstochowa		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.50	2.55
	2.48	3.55	2.63
	2.82	3.5	2.58
	2.66	3.57	2.56	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.55
	2.94	3.35	2.42	Watch
	2.65	3.35	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.11)	3.42 ↑ (3.33)	2.53 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
35%

Draw
27.6%

Górnik Zabrze
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Raków Częstochowa's form might have worsened.

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Górnik Zabrze's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raków Częstochowa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Górnik Zabrze, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	7.7%	38.5%

Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 50%). Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +2 - Górnik Zabrze (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Górnik Zabrze (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Górnik Zabrze (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 20%). Górnik Zabrze (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 77. Debohi D. G. 25. Racovitan B. 17. Jendryka J. 10. Kochergin V. 22. Abraham O. 36. Perovic M. 11. Emreli M. 9. Makuch P. 21. Pienko T.	1. Schulze P. (G) 61. Sacek M. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 82. Urbanski K. 14. Kubicki J. 8. Bernardo P. 7. Ikia Dimi Y. 9. Antiste J. 33. Khlan M.
Substitutes
99. Basse A. 3. Brorsson A. 39. Brusberg I. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 71. Karic T. (G) 15. Kwiatkowski O. 88. Molnar A. 2. Napieraj J. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. C. 23. Struski K. 4. Svarnas S.	4. Bochniewicz P. 66. Dietz M. 28. Donio B. 34. Durdov B. 23. Liseth S. 99. Loska T. (G) 11. Prekop E. 18. Sadilek L. 3. Synos M. 2. Warczak P. 21. Zmrzly O.
Coaches
Szulczek D.	Gasparik M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Antiste J. ⚽, Janicki R. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Janicki R. ⚽, Janza E. (A),
36', Perovic M. ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
36', Urbanski K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Debohi D. G. ↓, Svarnas S. ↑,
46', Jendryka J. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
52', Abraham O. ↓, Struski K. ↑,
61', Kochergin V. ↓, Basse A. ↑,
65', Tudor F. 🟨,
79', 1 - 2, Emreli M. ⚽,
80', Kubicki J. ↓, Sadilek L. ↑,
80', Ikia Dimi Y. ↓, Durdov B. ↑,
84', Bernardo P. ↓, Donio B. ↑,
84', Antiste J. ↓, Prekop E. ↑,
89', Khlan M. ↓, Zmrzly O. ↑,
90+4', Diaby-Fadiga L. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Recently, Górnik Zabrze has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Raków: Adriano (Inactive) Bulat M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Bochniewicz P. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Raków won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Gornik Zabrze: 20.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	7	1	1	16:8	8	22
18	Rakow	9	1	0	8	12:21	-9	3

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.26	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Raków Częstochowa - Hajduk Split	2:3 AET ✺
20.08.26	Hajduk Split - Raków Częstochowa	2:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.26	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hammarby - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLTLW
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.26	Górnik Zabrze - GKS Katowice	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Monaco - Górnik Zabrze	4:1 ✺
20.08.26	Górnik Zabrze - Monaco	2:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.26	Górnik Zabrze - Wisła Kraków	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Górnik Zabrze - Ferencvárosi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
02.05.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
21.02.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	1:0
18.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
19.04.24	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
22.10.23	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:1

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