Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Germany	Laola1
Poland	CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cracovia		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	3.00	Watch
	2.37	3.20	2.95
	2.48	3.10	2.85
	2.58	3.31	2.9
	2.44	3.25	3.03	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.85
	2.42	3.13	2.95	Watch
	2.43	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.76)	3.19 ↑ (3.17)	2.92 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cracovia
38.5%

Draw
29.4%

Raków Częstochowa
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

29.3%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

30.2%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cracovia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Raków Częstochowa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Cracovia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Raków will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cracovia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Madejski S. (G) 79. Pila D. 61. Traore B. 4. Henriksson G. 39. Perkovic M. 43. Klich M. (C) 6. Al Ammari A. 70. Kameri D. 14. Hasic A. 18. Zahiroleslam K. 17. Minchev M.	1. Trelowski K. (G) 77. Debohi D. G. 25. Racovitan B. (C) 2. Napieraj J. 20. Silva J. C. 6. Repka O. 23. Struski K. 19. Ameyaw M. 9. Makuch P. 11. Emreli M. 21. Pienko T.
Substitutes
9. Bogacz W. 28. Burlet V. 77. Chrapusta J. (G) 29. Dej W. 15. Glik K. 25. Kakabadze O. 7. Praszelik M. 23. Ravas H. (G) 5. Selan B. 92. Skoczylas M. 21. Smiglewski K. 19. Tabisz M.	22. Abraham O. 99. Basse A. 39. Brusberg I. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 17. Jendryka J. 71. Karic T. (G) 10. Kochergin V. 15. Kwiatkowski O. 88. Molnar A. 26. Otieno E. 36. Perovic M. 4. Svarnas S.
Coaches
Grzelak B.	Kroczek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Makuch P. ⚽, Emreli M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Debohi D. G. 🟨,
56', Hasic A. (Penalty Awarded),
56', 1 - 1, Hasic A. ⚽,
57', Debohi D. G. ↓, Kochergin V. ↑,
57', Ameyaw M. ↓, Otieno E. ↑,
66', Makuch P. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
66', Pienko T. ↓, Kwiatkowski O. ↑,
70', Zahiroleslam K. ↓, Praszelik M. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Pila D. ⚽, Klich M. (A),
76', Struski K. ↓, Molnar A. ↑,
79', Klich M. ↓, Selan B. ↑,
84', Hasic A. ↓, Kakabadze O. ↑,
84', Kameri D. ↓, Smiglewski K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Raków may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cracovia: Baumgartner D. (Inactive) Knap K. (Inactive) Marchwinski F. (Inactive) Tabisz M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Raków: Adriano (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cracovia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:4. (average 1.7:0.4).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Cracovia: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Cracovia	10	3	2	5	12:15	-3	11
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.07%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.08.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
03.08.26	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.26	Cracovia - Sevilla	1:0 ✺
09.07.26	Cracovia - Pardubice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TLTWW
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hammarby - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
06.08.26	Raków Częstochowa - Hammarby	0:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Valletta - Raków Częstochowa	0:4 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.07.26	Raków Częstochowa - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	3:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.10.25	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	2:0
01.02.25	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
29.07.24	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	0:1
19.05.24	Cracovia - Raków Częstochowa	2:0
Polish Cup
06.12.23	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	1:0 ET

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