Match Info

POLAND: EKSTRAKLASA - ROUND 3

Date: 5 August 2023, Saturday


	Raków Częstochowa		Warta Poznań

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.63	3.6	5.5
	1.64	3.75	5.3
	1.68	3.74	5.78
	1.55	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.65	3.65	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.35)	3.61 ↓ (5.25)	5.5 ↓ (7.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
57.1%

Draw
25.9%

Warta Poznań
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

17.8%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.2%

17.3%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Raków Częstochowa's form might have worsened.

Warta Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raków Częstochowa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	7.7%	23.1%

Raków Częstochowa - Warta Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Warta will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Bieszczad K. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 66. Papanikolaou G. (C) 22. Sorescu D. 8. Lederman B. 30. Kochergin V. 14. Plavsic S. 27. Nowak B. 93. Kittel S. 9. Zwolinski L.	1. Lis A. (G) 2. Bartkowski J. 44. Szymonowicz D. 34. Plesnierowicz W. 3. Kielb J. 16. Luis M. 21. Kupczak M. (C) 28. Borowski F. 7. Szmyt K. 29. Vizinger D. 77. Savic S.
Substitutes
24. Arsenic Z. 5. Berggren G. 77. Cebula M. 21. Drachal D. 15. Kovacevic A. 1. Kovacevic V. (G) 99. Piasecki F. 20. Silva J. 7. Tudor F.	33. Grobelny J. (G) 35. Jakubowski F. 97. Kaminski W. 8. Maenpaa N. 25. Paszkowski J. 4. Stavropoulos D. 20. Wajman J. 99. Zrelak A. 6. Zurawski M.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Szulczek D.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Raków won 4.

Raków is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Warta is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Warta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Warta have a series of home games.

In this match Raków is indisputable favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Raków won 9 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 21-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Raków won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
26.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.07.23	Flora Tallinn - Raków Częstochowa	0:3 ✺
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWL
- Warta Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.07.23	Warta Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	2:0 ✺
21.07.23	Warta Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.07.23	Warta Poznań - Polonia Środa Wielkopolska	3:0 ✺
14.07.23	Warta Poznań - Mladá Boleslav	0:1 ✺
08.07.23	Warta Poznań - Chrobry Głogów	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.01.23	Warta Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	1:1
15.07.22	Raków Częstochowa - Warta Poznań	1:0
02.04.22	Warta Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
03.10.21	Raków Częstochowa - Warta Poznań	3:0
20.04.21	Warta Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
29.11.20	Raków Częstochowa - Warta Poznań	1:0
Polish Division 1
14.04.19	Raków Częstochowa - Warta Poznań	3:0

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