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Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 4
  • Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
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    Rayo Vallecano Racing Santander
    Rayo Vallecano Racing Santander
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.02 ↑
    (1.86)    		 3.59 ↑
    (3.53)    		 3.73 ↓
    (4.52)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Rayo Vallecano
    47.5%    		Draw
    26.8%    		Racing Santander
    25.7%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    51.7% 27.1% 21.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    52.8% 27.7% 19.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
  • Racing Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rayo Vallecano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Santander than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Racing Santander, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    62.5% 8.3% 29.2%

    Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). Racing will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 43.1% โ€“ 81.9%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainCardenas D. (G)
      2. RomaniaRatiu A.
    24. FranceLejeune F.
      6. SenegalCiss P.
    17. SpainPedrosa A.
      8. SpainLopez U.
    23. SpainValentin O. (C)
      4. SpainDiaz P.
    19. Spainde Frutos J.
    10. SpainCamello S.
    18. SpainGarcia A.
    		13. SpainAgirrezabala J. (G)
      2. SpainMantilla A. (C)
      4. SpainManu Hernando
    16. UruguayGonzalez F.
    17. SpainSalinas J.
    23. SpainMartin I.
    18. ItalyPrati M.
    15. SpainGarcia P.
    20. SpainCanales S.
    10. SpainVicente I.
    21. MoroccoZabiri Y.
    Substitutes
      9. BrazilAlemao
    25. IndonesiaAudero E. (G)
    20. AlbaniaBalliu I.
    37. SpainBelaid R.
    36. SpainBouare G.
    26. Spainde las Sias M.
    22. SpainFernandez P.
    11. AngolaNteka R.
    21. SpainPerez F.
    15. SpainSadick M.
    14. GeorgiaTsitaishvili G.
    		  8. PortugalAlmeida A.
      9. SpainArana J.
    24. FranceBelocian J.
      1. SwedenEriksson S. (G)
    14. SenegalGueye M.
      7. GeorgiaGuliashvili G.
      3. SpainMartin A.
    22. BrazilPedro Felipe
    38. SpainPerez H.
      5. SpainRamon P.
      6. SpainSainz-Maza I.
    12. SpainVillalibre A.
    Coaches
         SpainSan Jose B.
    		     SpainLopez J.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 2)
    • 2', Valentin O. 🟨,
    • 4', 0 - 1, Canales S. ⚽,
    • 17', 1 - 1, Ratiu A. ⚽, Camello S. (A),
    • 25', Zabiri Y. 🟨,
    • 28', 1 - 2, Garcia P. ⚽,
    • 35', Vicente I. 🟨,
    • 39', Camello S. 🟨,
    • 43', 2 - 2, Camello S. ⚽, Lopez U. (A),
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 47', 3 - 2, Camello S. ⚽, Lopez U. (A),
    • 55', Gonzalez F. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,
    • 55', Prati M. ↓, Almeida A. ↑,
    • 55', Manu Hernando ↓, Ramon P. ↑,
    • 57', Valentin O. ↓, Bouare G. ↑,
    • 57', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
    • 65', de Frutos J. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
    • 66', Lejeune F. 🟨,
    • 74', Garcia A. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
    • 75', Pedrosa A. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
    • 86', Perez F. 🟥,
    • 89', de Frutos J. 🟥,
    • 90', Garcia P. ↓, Arana J. ↑,
    • 90', Mantilla A. ↓, Martin A. ↑,

    Preview

  • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
  • Racing may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • Recently, Rayo Vallecano has had a series of away games.
  • Rayo Vallecano could have a small edge in this match.
  • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    13Racing Santander1032515:26-1111
    16Rayo Vallecano923412:20-89

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Rayo Vallecano: 0.17% Racing Santander: 0.1%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.08.26 Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano 5:2 ✺
    20.08.26 Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavรฉs 1:1 ✺
    15.08.26 Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    01.08.26 Charleroi - Rayo Vallecano 2:3 ✺
    26.07.26 Feyenoord - Rayo Vallecano 1:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2
    LTLWT
    - Racing Santander
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.08.26 Racing Santander - Elche 3:2 ✺
    23.08.26 Getafe - Racing Santander 1:0 ✺
    16.08.26 Racing Santander - Villarreal 2:2 ✺
    Club Friendly
    07.08.26 Racing Santander - Sporting de Gijรณn 4:1 ✺
    01.08.26 Wolverhampton Wanderers - Racing Santander 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4
    WLTWL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga2
    20.07.20 Racing Santander - Rayo Vallecano 1:2
    13.09.19 Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander 2:0
    Spanish LaLiga
    03.03.12 Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander 4:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo ✺
    - Racing Santander
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Racing Santander - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Ribadesella - Racing Santander ✺

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