Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Klarlund F. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA, TOD
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	DAZN Brasil, Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	HBO Max
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	VG+
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Ellas V
Sweden	Discovery+, SVT 24, SVT 2, SVT Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, DAZN 1 UK, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1
Usa	DAZN USA


	Real Madrid		Arsenal LFC

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.7	2
	3	3.8	2
	3.2	3.75	2
	2.94	3.6	2.08
	3.3	3.91	1.98	Watch
	3	3.6	2
	3.16	3.75	2
	3.2	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.76)	3.73 ↑ (3.6)	2.01 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
29.5%

Draw
24.7%

Arsenal LFC
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

25.7%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

25%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Arsenal LFC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal LFC than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	9.1%	72.7%

Real Madrid - Arsenal LFC Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Real Madrid will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Arsenal LFC will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal LFC: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Misa (G) 15. Garcia S. 23. Lakrar M. 14. Mendez M. 7. Carmona O. (C) 6. Toletti S. 24. Leupolz M. 21. Angeldal F. 18. Caicedo L. 10. Weir C. 9. Bruun S.	1. Zinsberger M. (G) 2. Fox E. 6. Williamson L. 7. Catley S. 11. McCabe K. 10. Little K. (C) 32. Cooney-Cross K. 9. Mead B. 23. Russo A. 8. Caldentey M. 25. Blackstenius S.
Substitutes
5. Antonia 33. Bejarano N. 17. Camacho C. 22. del Castillo A. 36. Dorado I. 20. Feller N. 47. Fuente S. (G) 26. Lopez L. (G) 16. Moller C. 19. Navarro E. 11. Redondo A. 12. Yasmim	5. Codina L. 19. Foord C. 17. Hurtig L. 28. Ilestedt A. 16. Kafaji R. 18. Kelly C. 12. Leonhardsen-Maanum F. 22. Nighswonger J. 21. Pelova V. 62. Reid K. 13. Walti L. 40. Williams N. (G)
Coaches
Toril A.	Slegers R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Caicedo L. ⚽, Bruun S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Blackstenius S. ↓, Foord C. ↑,
46', Mead B. ↓, Kelly C. ↑,
63', Leupolz M. ↓, Dorado I. ↑,
69', Cooney-Cross K. ↓, Walti L. ↑,
74', Bruun S. ↓, Feller N. ↑,
74', Caicedo L. ↓, del Castillo A. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, del Castillo A. ⚽, Weir C. (A),
84', Caldentey M. ↓, Leonhardsen-Maanum F. ↑,
84', Russo A. ↓, Hurtig L. ↑,
87', Weir C. ↓, Antonia ↑,
89', Kelly C. 🟨,
90+2', Carmona O. 🟨,
90+4', Misa 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Real Madrid is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal LFC is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Arsenal LFC could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Arsenal LFC have a series of home games.

Arsenal LFC will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Women
Spanish Liga F Women
15.03.25	Real Madrid - Deportivo A Coruña	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
12.03.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	3:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
09.03.25	Sevilla - Real Madrid	0:4 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
06.03.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	0:5 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
02.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLWLW
- Arsenal LFC
English WSL
14.03.25	Everton - Arsenal LFC	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup Women
09.03.25	Arsenal LFC - Liverpool LFC	0:1 ✺
English WSL
02.03.25	Arsenal LFC - West Ham	4:3 ✺
16.02.25	Arsenal LFC - Tottenham Hotspur	5:0 ✺
English FA Cup Women
09.02.25	Arsenal LFC - London City Lionesses	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWWW

Real Madrid - Arsenal LFC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide