Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League Women - Qualification - Final

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Shukrula S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11, Sporting TV
Spain	Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	1.32	5.25	7.75
	1.3	5	8
	1.34	4.93	7.33
	1.38	4.66	6.74	Watch
	1.29	4.75	8
	1.32	4.95	7.15
	1.3	5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↑ (1.3)	4.93 ↑ (4.88)	7.57 ↓ (8.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
69.3%

Draw
18.6%

Sporting Lisbon
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

18.9%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

18.7%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Madrid - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Misa (G) 2. Hernandez O. 23. Lakrar M. 14. Mendez M. 7. Carmona O. (C) 24. Leupolz M. 6. Toletti S. 20. Feller N. 10. Weir C. 22. del Castillo A. 9. Bruun S.	1. Seabert H. G. (G) 9. Borges A. (C) 6. Eaton-Collins G. 13. Pinto F. 77. Correia A. 28. Galabadaarachchi J. 39. Bravo A. 21. Maiara Niehues 17. Claudia Neto 10. Capeta A. 18. Raphino B.
Substitutes
3. Abelleira T. 21. Angeldal F. 33. Bejarano N. 18. Caicedo L. 17. Camacho C. 13. Chavas M. (G) 47. Fuente S. (G) 4. Galvez Luna R. 15. Garcia S. 16. Moller C. 19. Navarro E. 11. Redondo A.	15. Bea 42. Correia M. 20. Encarnacao T. 8. Fontemanha R. 14. Ines Barge Vera Cid 78. O'Donnel M. 11. Perez B. 22. Potra C. (G) 5. Ribeiro A. 35. Sheppard C. (G) 19. Silva D.
Coaches
Toril A.	Martins de Medeiros Vieira Cabral M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Capeta A. ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Toletti S. ⚽, Weir C. (A),
29', Hernandez O. 🟨,
33', Borges A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Hernandez O. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Toletti S. ⚽, Weir C. (A),
56', Feller N. ↓, Navarro E. ↑,
59', Raphino B. ↓, Encarnacao T. ↑,
68', Galabadaarachchi J. 🟨,
69', Bravo A. ↓, Perez B. ↑,
78', Weir C. ↓, Angeldal F. ↑,
78', Bruun S. ↓, Redondo A. ↑,
79', Galabadaarachchi J. ↓, Correia M. ↑,
79', Capeta A. ↓, Silva D. ↑,
87', Toletti S. ↓, Abelleira T. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Redondo A. ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Real Madrid in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sporting is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sporting could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Real Madrid have a series of guest games.

In this match Real Madrid is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Real Madrid won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Women
Spanish Liga F Women
22.09.24	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
19.09.24	Sporting Lisbon - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
14.09.24	Betis - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
06.09.24	Espanyol - Real Madrid	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly Women
17.08.24	Tenerife - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWT
- Sporting Lisbon Women
UEFA Champions League Women
19.09.24	Sporting Lisbon - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga BPI Women
13.09.24	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
07.09.24	Breiðablik - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
04.09.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga BPI Women
30.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women
19.09.24	Sporting Lisbon - Real Madrid	1:2

Real Madrid - Sporting Lisbon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide