Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Real Madrid C		Alcalá

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.2	3	2.95
	2.22	3.05	2.98
	2.31	3	3.12
	2.29	3.09	3.06	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.26	2.99	3.11
	2.3	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.3)	3.02 ↑ (3.02)	3.04 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid C
40.2%

Draw
30%

Alcalá
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

30%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.5%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid C has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Alcalá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Real Madrid C aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Real Madrid C - Alcalá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
68', 1 - 1, Kone ⚽,
75', 1 - 2, Kone (Penalty Awarded),
84', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid C won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Real Madrid C won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	RSD Alcala	5	2	0	3	10:10	0	6
18	Real Madrid C	5	0	3	2	1:4	-3	3

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid C - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.48%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid C
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
15.02.26	Socuéllamos - Real Madrid C	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Real Madrid C - Rayo Majadahonda	0:3 ✺
01.02.26	Elche Ilicitano - Real Madrid C	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Intercity - Real Madrid C	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Real Madrid C - Orihuela	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLWL
- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
15.02.26	Alcalá - Orihuela	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Intercity - Alcalá	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Alcalá - Colonia Moscardó	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Getafe B - Alcalá	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Alcalá - San Sebastian Reyes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.12.25	Alcalá - Real Madrid C	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
21.04.24	Alcalá - Real Madrid C	1:2
02.12.23	Real Madrid C - Alcalá	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
21.04.13	Alcalá - Real Madrid C	0:2

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