Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 35

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	4.5
	1.66	3.5	4.33
	1.71	3.65	4.5
	1.76	3.61	4.54
	1.67	3.66	4.65	Watch
	1.74	3.55	4.7
	1.71	3.65	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.64)	3.57 ↓ (3.64)	4.53 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
54%

Draw
25.7%

Marbella
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.2%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

25.8%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Marbella Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marbella (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fran (G) 29. Rivas M. 15. Ribes K. 4. Pujol E. 22. Jimenez D. 27. Fortuny P. 6. Andres C. 23. Yusi 9. Munoz V. 19. Zuniga L. 7. Garcia G.	1. Puerto E. (G) 14. Olguin M. 20. Bernardo 10. Punal A. 2. Alvarez J. 23. Pena M. 24. Edwards R. 19. Ohemeng E. 18. Awudu T. 7. Callejon J. (C) 16. Hanza D.
Substitutes
11. Alonso B. 16. Antonio David 20. Campos A. 25. de Luis M. (G) 40. Diocou B. 2. Lorenzo 10. Palacios C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 17. Ruiz D. 37. Valdepenas V.	4. Carrasco J. 6. Duarte J. 9. Du Yuezheng 3. Fornes G. 13. Martin D. (G) 21. Munoz P. 17. Ruiz F. 11. Soto A. 8. Zequi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Jimenez D. ⚽,
32', Andres C. 🟨,
34', Awudu T. ↓, Soto A. ↑,
38', Ribes K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', 2 - 0, Garcia G. ⚽, Fortuny P. (A),
58', 2 - 1, Callejon J. ⚽,
62', Pena M. ↓, Duarte J. ↑,
62', Bernardo ↓, Fornes G. ↑,
62', Edwards R. ↓, Zequi ↑,
65', 3 - 1, Zuniga L. ⚽,
74', Zuniga L. ↓, Valdepenas V. ↑,
74', Yusi ↓, Campos A. ↑,
74', Andres C. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
76', Puerto E. 🟨,
79', Antonio David 🟨,
81', Olguin M. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
82', Fortuny P. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
84', 🟨,
85', Alvarez J. 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 2, Soto A. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 15).

Recent performances by Real Madrid Castilla have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marbella is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Madrid Castilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
12.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
28.03.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWTTT
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.04.25	Marbella - Atlético Madrid B	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Ceuta - Marbella	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Marbella - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Marbella	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Sevilla B - Marbella	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.08.24	Marbella - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0

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