Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 34

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.2	3.1	2.85
	2.3	3.15	3.05
	2.24	3.18	3.31
	2.35	3.07	2.96	Watch
	2.25	3.08	3.19
	2.3	3.15	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.36)	3.1 ↑ (2.98)	3.09 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
40.6%

Draw
29.6%

Ceuta
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.9%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

32.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. de Luis M. (G) 29. Rivas M. 15. Ribes K. 4. Pujol E. 2. Lorenzo 22. Jimenez D. 6. Andres C. 8. Angel M. 23. Yusi 27. Fortuny P. 30. Garcia G.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 15. Guzman J. 4. Caparros A. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 5. Bellotti M. 22. Kone K. 19. Jamelli
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 20. Campos A. 40. Diocou B. 10. Palacios C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 17. Ruiz D. 37. Valdepenas V. 19. Zuniga L.	28. Aniekan B. 11. Aquino D. . Heredia J. P. A. 6. Hernandez C. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) 10. Rodriguez C. 32. Rodriguez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Cantero Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Lorenzo ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
65', Bellotti M. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
68', Zalazar K. 🟨,
72', 0 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽,
78', Escudero A. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
78', Kone K. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
78', Pujol E. ↓, Valdepenas V. ↑,
78', Fortuny P. ↓, Diocou B. ↑,
79', Angel M. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
89', Garcia G. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Recent matches Real Madrid Castilla is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceuta is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:10 (average 0.8:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.04.25	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
12.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
28.03.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
21.03.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTTTT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.04.25	Ceuta - Marbella	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Intercity - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Ceuta - Hércules	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
22.12.24	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
04.02.24	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:0
29.10.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.05.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:3
15.01.23	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2

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