Match Info

Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 8 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Zubieta Real Sociedad (San Sebastian)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Real Sociedad B		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	2.87
	2.08	3.2	3.3
	1.86	3.36	4.15
	2.06	3.16	3.49	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.88
	2.13	3.3	3.59
	2.08	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (2.08)	3.19 ↑ (3.13)	3.37 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad B
43.9%

Draw
28.8%

Mérida AD
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

29.5%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

29%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad B than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Real Sociedad B - Mérida AD Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Real Sociedad B will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad B (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Arana E. (G) 22. Ruperez I. 24. Beitia L. 15. Rodriguez P. 3. Balda J. 44. Gorosabel G. 28. Carbonell T. 40. Astiazaran L. 10. Goti Lopez M. 19. Marchal A. 20. Mariezkurrena A.	1. Juanpa (G) 4. Bonaque M. 22. Athuman I. 28. del Cerro S. 19. Pipe 10. Juanjo 17. Ganet P. 21. Beneit R. 7. Alvaro J. 11. Doncel C. 8. Eslava J.
Substitutes
23. Agote U. 5. Astigarraga E. 35. Carrera G. 18. Garcia E. 16. Gibelalde M. 6. Lebarbier A. 21. Merino J. 11. Ochieng J. 9. Orobengoa E. 17. Ramirez D. 8. Rodriguez M. 32. Zango A. (G)	14. Beltran L. 23. Busi 24. Carvalho M. 18. Falcon E. 3. Jimenez N. 26. Macia I. (G) 6. Miki 9. Mizzian M. 20. Nabian H. 15. Prevedini M. 16. Sanchez E. 27. Tiago Leal 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Mariezkurrena A. 🟨,
41', Ruperez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Alvaro J. 🟨,
58', Gorosabel G. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
65', del Cerro S. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
65', Beneit R. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
66', Beitia L. 🟨,
67', Bonaque M. 🟨,
71', Marchal A. ↓, Ochieng J. ↑,
73', Juanjo ↓, Miki ↑,
73', Alvaro J. ↓, Busi ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Eslava J. ⚽,
81', Astiazaran L. ↓, Orobengoa E. ↑,
86', Mariezkurrena A. 🟨,
90+1', Bonaque M. ↓, Prevedini M. ↑,
90+3', Orobengoa E. 🟨,
90+6', Doncel C. ↓, Mizzian M. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

Real Sociedad B is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mérida AD has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Sociedad B will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Sociedad B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.06.25	Mérida AD - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Arenteiro - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Ponferradina	3:2 ✺
02.05.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Real Sociedad B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWTWT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.06.25	Mérida AD - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.05.25	Mérida AD - Atlético Madrid B	2:2 ✺
17.05.25	Recreativo Huelva - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.06.25	Mérida AD - Real Sociedad B	0:1

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