Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Nuevo Colombino (Huelva)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Recreativo Huelva		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.5	1.83
	3.45	3.25	2.07
	3.25	3.1	2.15
	3.32	3.23	2.1	Watch
	3.35	3.16	2.14
	3.45	3.25	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.77)	3.25 ↓ (3.36)	2.06 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Recreativo Huelva
26.9%

Draw
28.4%

Mérida AD
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

27.4%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

27.3%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Recreativo Huelva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Recreativo Huelva's form might have worsened.

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mérida AD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Recreativo Huelva than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Recreativo Huelva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mérida AD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Recreativo Huelva - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Galvez R. (G) 18. Perejon D. 34. Juancho V. 22. Navas R. 26. Davinchi 28. Vega I. 14. Del Pozo D. 10. Dominguez A. 8. Luis Alcalde 7. Romero P. 15. Armero S.	1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 22. Athuman I. 4. Bonaque M. 28. del Cerro S. 7. Alvaro J. 21. Beneit R. 10. Juanjo 17. Ganet P. 11. Doncel C. 8. Eslava J.
Substitutes
31. Almeida J. 19. Aparisi K. 6. Bahachille A. 20. Becken C. 16. Caballero P. 21. Cachorro 17. Cerrudo J. 29. Evora P. 30. Folgado T. (G) 27. Limon A.	14. Beltran L. 23. Busi 24. Carvalho M. 18. Falcon E. 26. Macia I. (G) 6. Miki 20. Nabian H. 15. Prevedini M. 16. Sanchez E. 27. Tiago Leal 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Doncel C. ⚽,
33', Del Pozo D. 🟨,
45+2', Juanjo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Juancho V. 🟨,
55', Ganet P. ↓, Miki ↑,
55', Alvaro J. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
57', Vega I. ↓, Almeida J. ↑,
62', Davinchi 🟨,
65', Juancho V. ↓, Becken C. ↑,
65', Armero S. ↓, Aparisi K. ↑,
73', Doncel C. ↓, Carvalho M. ↑,
73', Juanjo ↓, Busi ↑,
79', Eslava J. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
84', Luis Alcalde 🟨,
86', Luis Alcalde ↓, Caballero P. ↑,
86', Davinchi ↓, Limon A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recreativo won 1.

Recreativo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mérida AD has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Recreativo won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recreativo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Recreativo Huelva
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.05.25	Marbella - Recreativo Huelva	3:1 ✺
04.05.25	Recreativo Huelva - Ibiza	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Alcoyano - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
11.04.25	Sevilla B - Recreativo Huelva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTTLL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Mérida AD - Antequera	3:0 ✺
20.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Hércules - Mérida AD	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.08.24	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	3:3
24.03.24	Recreativo Huelva - Mérida AD	3:0
26.11.23	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	0:0
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	2:0
29.08.21	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
09.02.20	Recreativo Huelva - Mérida AD	3:3
22.09.19	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	0:1

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