Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Mérida AD		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.8	2.88
	2.38	3	2.92
	2.5	3.05	3.05
	2.05	3.23	3.57	Watch
	2.4	2.94	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.05)	3 ↓ (3.23)	3.07 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
39.3%

Draw
30.7%

Real Madrid Castilla
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.7%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

30.2%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mérida AD's form might have worsened.

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Real Madrid Castilla (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Real Madrid Castilla (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 5. Dominguez J. 4. Pareja L. 23. Verges E. 11. Areso J. 21. Beneit R. 10. Doncel C. 8. Solar M. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	1. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 8. Moran M. A. (C) 14. Cestero Sancho J. 27. Pitarch T. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.
Substitutes
14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 15. Martinez G. 6. Miki 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe 22. Rivas M.	23. Fati L. 20. Fortuny P. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', Beneit R. 🟨,
36', Doncel C. 🟨,
37', Palacios C. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Pareja L. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
45+2', Yanez D. 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 0, Pareja L. ⚽, Dominguez J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Pareja L. 🟨,
57', Zuniga L. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
60', Chiqui 🟨,
71', Beneit R. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
71', Areso J. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Aguado D. (Own goal),
74', Yanez D. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
78', Aguado D. 🟨,
80', Doncel C. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
86', Garcia A. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
86', Chiqui ↓, Artola J. ↑,
86', Martinez J. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
86', Palacios C. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
90+2', Martinez G. 🟨,
90+6', Jimenez D. 🟥,
90+8', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1.

In recent matches, Mérida AD has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Mérida AD may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mérida AD will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mérida AD won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Navalcarnero - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.10.25	Mérida AD - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenteiro	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLTWL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0
11.02.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:1
23.09.23	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.03.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:0
15.10.22	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1

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