Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 15

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Real Ávila		Burgos Promesas

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.55	5.7
	1.58	3.63	6.11
	1.54	3.71	5.93	Watch
	1.57	3.3	6
	1.53	3.48	6.29
	1.57	3.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.51)	3.53 ↑ (3.5)	6.01 ↓ (6.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Ávila
58.9%

Draw
25.9%

Burgos Promesas
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

25.8%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

22.6%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Ávila has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Burgos Promesas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Ávila than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Ávila that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos Promesas than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Real Ávila - Burgos Promesas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Carrion A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Nsukula G. ⚽,
88', Monedero M. 🟥,
90+1', 2 - 1, Runy ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Real Ávila have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Burgos Promesas is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Real Ávila may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Ávila is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Ávila won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home match between the teams, Real Ávila won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Ávila
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.12.25	Coruxo - Real Ávila	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Real Ávila - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
30.11.25	Marino de Luanco - Real Ávila	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Real Ávila - Valladolid B	2:2 ✺
16.11.25	Salamanca - Real Ávila	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLLTW
- Burgos Promesas
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.12.25	Burgos Promesas - Valladolid B	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Salamanca - Burgos Promesas	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Burgos Promesas - Numancia	0:1 ✺
16.11.25	Sarriana - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Burgos Promesas - Sámano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
23.03.24	Burgos Promesas - Real Ávila	1:2
05.11.23	Real Ávila - Burgos Promesas	1:1
24.01.21	Burgos Promesas - Real Ávila	1:0
04.01.20	Burgos Promesas - Real Ávila	3:0
12.01.19	Burgos Promesas - Real Ávila	0:0

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