Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/64-finals

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday


	Real Ávila		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.05	3.7	2.02
	3.13	3.00	2.37	Watch
	3.03	3.52	2.21	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.75)	3.36 ↑ (2.95)	2.16 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Ávila
29.3%

Draw
27.7%

Real Avilés
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

30%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

28.4%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Ávila has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Ávila's performance.

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Ávila than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Ávila that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Avilés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Real Ávila - Real Avilés Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Real Ávila will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Real Avilés will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Ávila: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Avilés (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Real Ávila (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Ávila (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Real Avilés (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Rodriguez S. (G) 23. Urbina G. L. 29. Fall B. 4. Lauture S. 3. Ngaah P. 8. Sisse F. 21. Moreno A. 6. Vitolo (C) 10. Carrion A. 9. Lorenzo D. 30. Sarr M.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 2. Ortega G. 4. Rodriguez J. 15. Chukwuma E. 3. Diaz V. 17. Bari Q. 18. Gete A. 23. El Arbaoui Y. 14. Cayarga B. 10. Cueto J. 19. Poquet N. (C)
Substitutes
15. Braian 2. Doumbia I. 22. Garrido Diaz F. 1. Lopez O. (G) 20. Luz P. 17. Marquitos 5. Pascual C. 12. Perez C. 16. Ruiz M. 7. Runy 19. Serrano Iranzo G.	21. Alvarez P. 5. Babin J. 8. Bautista K. 20. Campabadal E. 26. Carracedo O. 1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Gomez A. 7. Hernandez R. 22. Isi Ros 11. Rubio R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
29', El Arbaoui Y. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sisse F. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
60', Gete A. 🟨,
62', Carrion A. ↓, Serrano Iranzo G. ↑,
63', Lorenzo D. ↓, Runy ↑,
64', Diaz V. 🟨,
65', Cueto J. ↓, Bautista K. ↑,
65', Poquet N. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
65', Poquet N. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
69', Moreno A. 🟨,
79', Fall B. ↓, Pascual C. ↑,
83', Cayarga B. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
84', Sarr M. ↓, Luz P. ↑,
90+2', Perez C. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
110', 1 - 0, Vitolo ⚽,
112', Perez C. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
120+2', Isi Ros 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Real Ávila has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Avilés is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Avilés will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Real Ávila won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Real Ávila won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Ávila
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.10.25	Real Ávila - Sámano	3:2 ✺
19.10.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Real Ávila	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Real Ávila - Real Oviedo B	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	UD Ourense - Real Ávila	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Real Ávila - Lealtad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTTW
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Real Avilés - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Zamora - Real Avilés	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Real Avilés	3:4 ✺
28.09.25	Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
23.02.25	Real Ávila - Real Avilés	0:0
12.10.24	Real Avilés - Real Ávila	2:0

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