Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Román Suárez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Avilés		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.1
	3.35	3	2.15
	3.41	3.07	2.24
	9.27	4.53	1.34	Watch
	3.4	3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.53 ↑ (2.87)	3.32 ↑ (2.96)	2.01 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
21.6%

Draw
29.5%

Athletic Bilbao B
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

30.9%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Avilés's form might have worsened.

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Bilbao B's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Avilés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 2. Ortega G. 5. Babin J. 16. Gomez A. 26. Carracedo O. 7. Hernandez R. 18. Gete A. 8. Bautista K. 21. Alvarez P. 11. Rubio R. 9. Santamaria A.	13. Santos M. (G) 2. Irurita X. 28. Monreal I. 3. De Luis J. 19. Louis-Jean J. 11. Bujan E. 18. Garcia E. 10. Sanchez I. 8. Lete E. 22. Perez A. 9. Sanz I.
Substitutes
13. Almodovar N. (G) 17. Bari Q. 20. Campabadal E. 14. Cayarga B. 15. Chukwuma E. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 12. Granero B. 22. Isi Ros 19. Poquet N. 4. Rodriguez J.	12. Barandalla M. 5. Ebro Cortina E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 6. Gibelalde M. 23. Gift E. 7. Hierro A. 17. Huestamendia P. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 29. Nomayo W. 30. Rego A. 26. Sola J. 20. Vizcay T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Sanz I. ⚽,
38', Gete A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Alvarez P. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Bautista K. ⚽,
61', Hernandez R. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
61', Carracedo O. ↓, Campabadal E. ↑,
71', Rubio R. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Cueto J. ⚽,
80', 2 - 2, Sanz I. ⚽,
86', 🟨,
90', 3 - 2, Cueto J. ⚽,
90+3', Santamaria A. ↓, Granero B. ↑,
90+7', Isi Ros 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Athletic Bilbao B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Athletic Bilbao B is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.28%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Real Avilés - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Lugo - Real Avilés	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Marino de Luanco - Real Avilés	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTLW
- Athletic Bilbao B
English Premier League International Cup
24.09.25	Manchester United U21 - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.08.23	Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B	1:2

Upcoming Matches