Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	3.9
	1.88	3.3	3.85
	1.9	3.5	3.78
	2.32	3.32	2.90	Watch
	1.9	3.37	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.32)	3.35 ↑ (3.32)	3.7 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
47.2%

Draw
27.7%

Real Avilés
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

28.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Avilés might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid Castilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Avilés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real Madrid Castilla (1.52) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 8. Angel M. 27. Pitarch T. 20. Fortuny P. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. 12. Granero B. 26. Carracedo O. 17. Bari Q. 18. Gete A. 16. Gomez A. 22. Isi Ros 7. Hernandez R. 11. Rubio R.
Substitutes
21. Aguado D. 33. Castrelo G. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 21. Alvarez P. 8. Bautista K. 15. Chukwuma E. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 23. El Arbaoui Y. 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 4. Rodriguez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', Granero B. 🟨,
17', Gomez A. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Zuniga L. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Zuniga L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Isi Ros ↓, Bautista K. ↑,
60', Gomez A. ↓, El Arbaoui Y. ↑,
63', Fortuny P. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
63', Serrano M. ↓, Aguado D. ↑,
70', Gete A. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
70', Campabadal E. ↓, Ortega G. ↑,
76', Zuniga L. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
80', Mesonero D. 🟨,
81', Bari Q. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
82', Pitarch T. 🟨,
88', Pitarch T. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
88', Angel M. ↓, Perea C. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Real Madrid Castilla has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Avilés is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Madrid Castilla will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
27.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Tenerife	1:3 ✺
21.09.25	Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWLL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Real Avilés - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Zamora - Real Avilés	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Real Avilés	3:4 ✺
28.09.25	Real Avilés - Athletic Bilbao B	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWWWL

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