Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 33

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Fernando Torres (Fuenlabrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Fuenlabrada		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.75	3.1
	2.35	2.9	2.85
	2.41	3	3.05
	2.5	2.9	3
	2.44	2.91	3	Watch
	2.49	2.85	3.03
	2.35	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.46)	2.9 ↓ (2.99)	3.02 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuenlabrada
38.1%

Draw
31.6%

Mérida AD
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

30.7%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

31.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuenlabrada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz L. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Alba D. 4. Mauro M. 6. Alvaro Garcia 8. Ruiz Fer 16. Aguza S. 15. Moyano A. 11. Abde 9. Omoigui C. 7. Manu	1. Juanpa (G) 15. Prevedini M. 18. Falcon E. 22. Athuman I. 28. del Cerro S. 6. Miki 24. Carvalho M. 7. Alvaro J. 23. Busi 11. Doncel C. 9. Mizzian M.
Substitutes
14. Barbosa A. 3. Barbu 13. Bloch F. (G) 20. Casas I. 23. Chang-Sang J. 19. Faure I. 26. Garcia M. 21. Nene 12. Pinan A.	21. Beneit R. 4. Bonaque M. 17. Ganet P. 10. Juanjo 26. Macia I. (G) 20. Nabian H. 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 27. Tiago Leal 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Mizzian M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Doncel C. ↓, Ganet P. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Abde ⚽,
62', Carvalho M. ↓, Juanjo ↑,
66', Prevedini M. ↓, Beneit R. ↑,
66', Mizzian M. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
66', Alba D. 🟨,
72', Mauro M. 🟨,
75', Alvaro J. ↓, Pareja Alvarez L. ↑,
75', Moyano A. ↓, Barbosa A. ↑,
75', Manu ↓, Faure I. ↑,
88', Abde ↓, Pinan A. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Recent matches Fuenlabrada is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mérida AD is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mérida AD could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Fuenlabrada won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Fuenlabrada won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.04.25	Alcoyano - Fuenlabrada	2:4 ✺
05.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Marbella	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Villarreal B - Fuenlabrada	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Fuenlabrada - Sevilla B	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Real Murcia - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTLL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.04.25	Hércules - Mérida AD	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Mérida AD - Sevilla B	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alcoyano - Mérida AD	2:3 ✺
21.03.25	Mérida AD - Yeclano Deportivo	1:0 ✺
14.03.25	Villarreal B - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.24	Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.03.23	Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada	2:0
06.12.22	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.09.17	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	2:0

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