Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Innviertel Arena (Ried)

Referee: Altmann W. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Germany	Sky Go Germany
World	Onefootball


	Ried		Hartberg

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.7	2.7	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.2
	2.08	3.95	2.52
	3.43	3.45	2.06
	33.84	4.62	1.22	Watch
	2.33	3.83	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.67 ↑ (1.95)	3.83 ↑ (3.69)	2.43 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ried
16.2%

Draw
32.5%

Hartberg
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

25.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ried has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-31.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ried's form might have worsened.

Hartberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hartberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ried than the current prediction. (+32.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ried, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (-24.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hartberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.9%	8.3%	77.8%

Ried - Hartberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Ried will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). Hartberg will win (votes: 27 - 77.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartberg: 63.2% – 91%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Hartberg (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hartberg (3.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Ried (1.75) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Hartberg (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hartberg will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Ried (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Hartberg (votes: 24 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leitner A. (C) 5. Havenaar N. 23. Sollbauer M. 30. Steurer O. 18. Rossdorfer F. 6. Maart Y. 26. Mayer J. 17. Pomer P. 28. Bajlicz N. 7. Mutandwa K. 11. Azkune E.	40. Hulsmann T. (G) 28. Heil J. (C) 3. Vincze D. 19. Spendlhofer L. 18. Wilfinger F. 33. Hennig M. 95. Kovacevic D. 4. Markus B. 23. Kainz T. 7. Havel E. 22. Hoffmann M.
Substitutes
10. Grosse M. 25. Kirnbauer D. 8. Rasner M. 9. Sane S. 3. Scherzer J. 24. Wernitznig C. 77. Wimmer F. (G)	6. Coulibaly H. 30. Fridrikas L. 16. Golles J. 8. Halwachs J. 1. Helac A. (G) 77. Korherr D. 9. Mijic P.
Coaches
Senft M.	Schmid M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Hoffmann M. ⚽, Kovacevic D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Leitner A. 🟨,
63', Azkune E. ↓, Sane S. ↑,
63', Bajlicz N. ↓, Grosse M. ↑,
71', Kainz T. 🟨,
76', Kovacevic D. ↓, Fillafer M. ↑,
76', Kainz T. ↓, Golles J. ↑,
77', Havel E. 🟨,
82', Havel E. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
83', Sollbauer M. ↓, Kirnbauer D. ↑,
83', Mayer J. ↓, Wernitznig C. ↑,
87', Fillafer M. 🟨,
90+4', 0 - 2, Fridrikas L. ⚽, Hennig M. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ried won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Hartberg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ried has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ried: Mesic N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hartberg: Komposch P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hartberg: Diarra Y. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ried won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ried won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Ried
Austrian Bundesliga
30.08.25	LASK Linz - Ried	1:3 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
26.08.25	Union Gurten - Ried	0:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
23.08.25	Blau-Weiss Linz - Ried	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Rheindorf Altach - Ried	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWWLL
- TSV Hartberg
Austrian Bundesliga
31.08.25	Hartberg - Rapid Wien	0:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
27.08.25	ATUS Velden - Hartberg	0:3 ET ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
24.08.25	Austria Wien - Hartberg	1:3 ✺
16.08.25	Hartberg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Blau-Weiss Linz - Hartberg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
27.05.23	Hartberg - Ried	2:0
08.04.23	Ried - Hartberg	1:3
12.02.23	Ried - Hartberg	0:1
27.08.22	Hartberg - Ried	2:0
20.05.22	Hartberg - Ried	1:1
09.04.22	Ried - Hartberg	0:0
Austrian OFB Cup
02.03.22	Ried - Hartberg	2:1

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