Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Innviertel Arena (Ried)

Referee: Talic A. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
World	Onefootball


	Ried		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.9	1.75	Watch
	3.75	3.6	1.88
	4.15	3.7	1.78
	4.33	3.92	1.82
	3.95	3.56	1.89	Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.91
	4.2	3.75	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.05 ↓ (4.43)	3.69 ↓ (3.77)	1.84 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ried
23.3%

Draw
25.5%

Sturm Graz
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

24.8%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

24.4%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ried has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ried than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Ried - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ried will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Sturm will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Sturm (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leitner A. (C) 5. Havenaar N. 23. Sollbauer M. 30. Steurer O. 12. Bajic A. 6. Maart Y. 8. Rasner M. 17. Pomer P. 10. Grosse M. 7. Mutandwa K. 13. Kiedl P.	1. Christensen O. (G) 2. Johnston M. 5. Oermann T. 24. Lavalee D. 17. Karic E. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 19. Horvat T. 21. Chukwuani T. 10. Kiteishvili O. 38. Grgic L. 15. Boving W.
Substitutes
11. Azkune E. 15. Boguo J. 25. Kirnbauer D. 26. Mayer J. 18. Rossdorfer F. 3. Scherzer J. 29. van Wyk A. 24. Wernitznig C. 77. Wimmer F. (G)	47. Aiwu E. 26. Beganovic B. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 35. Geyrhofer N. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 20. Jatta S. 23. Malic A. 8. Rozga F.
Coaches
Senft M.	Saumel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
5', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
8', Kiedl P. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Kiedl P. ⚽, Bajic A. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Kiteishvili O. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
31', 1 - 2, Johnston M. ⚽, Boving W. (A),
44', 1 - 3, Kiteishvili O. ⚽, Horvat T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rasner M. ↓, Mayer J. ↑,
61', Bajic A. 🟨,
65', Kiedl P. ↓, van Wyk A. ↑,
68', Boving W. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
68', Grgic L. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
71', Mayer J. 🟨,
72', Mutandwa K. ↓, Boguo J. ↑,
81', Karic E. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
81', Horvat T. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
85', Maart Y. 🟨,
87', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ried won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Sturm is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ried: Mayer J. (Inactive) Mesic N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Knee Injury) Geyrhofer N. (Inactive) Kayombo A. (Ankle Injury) Khudyakov D. (Wrist Injury) Oermann T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ried: van Wyk A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ried won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:29. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ried won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.8:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Ried
Austrian Bundesliga
09.08.25	Rheindorf Altach - Ried	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Ried - Red Bull Salzburg	2:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
25.07.25	Parndorf - Ried	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Ried - Amstetten	2:3 ✺
18.07.25	Ried - Energie Cottbus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWLW
- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
10.08.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.25	Sturm Graz - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
01.08.25	LASK Linz - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
25.07.25	Bischofshofen - Sturm Graz	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Sturm Graz - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian OFB Cup
28.08.24	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3
Austrian Bundesliga
30.10.22	Sturm Graz - Ried	2:1
06.08.22	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:1
06.03.22	Ried - Sturm Graz	2:2
Austrian OFB Cup
27.10.21	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:2
Austrian Bundesliga
17.10.21	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:0
09.02.21	Sturm Graz - Ried	2:1

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