Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 24

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Riga 2		Ogre United

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.35	1.5
	5.71	4.91	1.40	Watch
	5.04	4.55	1.47
	4.5	4.25	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5 ↓ (5.71)	4.52 ↓ (4.91)	1.47 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga 2
18.2%

Draw
20.1%

Ogre United
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

18.6%

65.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

18.2%

66.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga 2 than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Riga 2 - Ogre United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kazainis M. (G) 20. Birka E. 9. Blazevics J. 14. Ibrahim H. 17. Johnson K. 3. Lanskis L. 7. Ozolins R. 11. Pena B. 8. Sarma T. 5. Sindlers L. (C) 19. Wassom K.	20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 4. Mamich D. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 88. Stepanovs V. 2. Ziemelis R.
Substitutes
18. Avdejevs D. 22. Eke L. 13. Fedosejevs N. 15. Girgens F. 21. Kalinovs D. 10. Parkhomenko M. 12. Prudchenko N. 16. Svans K. (G) 2. Zemitis R.	13. Gulbis K. 30. Hvoinickis D. 19. Jamonts K. 44. Kontrims T. 15. Licis K. 1. Perkons E. (G) 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 22. Sprukulis K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Mamich D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
62', 1 - 0, Johnson K. ⚽,
63', Mashchenko V. ↓, Jamonts K. ↑,
65', Pacepko M. ↓, Licis K. ↑,
73', Stepanovs V. ↓, Hvoinickis D. ↑,
76', Kalnins M. 🟨,
80', 2 - 0, Johnson K. ⚽,
85', Kalnins M. ↓, Salins D. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Marusiy T. ⚽,
90+2', Ibrahim H. 🟨,
90+3', Pena B. ↓, Eke L. ↑,
90+3', Ibrahim H. ↓, Fedosejevs N. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Nakotnes liga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Virsliga).

In recent matches, Riga 2 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ogre United is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ogre United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ogre United has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ogre United is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Riga 2 won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Riga 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga FC 2
Latvian 1 Liga
04.10.25	Riga 2 - Olaine	7:2 ✺
27.09.25	Leevon PPK - Riga 2	0:3 ✺
20.09.25	Riga 2 - Mārupe	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Skanstes - Riga 2	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Rēzekne - Riga 2	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWLL
- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
18.10.25	Ogre United - JDFS Alberts	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Ogre United - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Ogre United - Riga Mariners	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Ogre United - Augšdaugavas	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Tukums 2000 2 - Ogre United	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
28.06.25	Ogre United - Riga 2	1:0
03.08.24	Ogre United - Riga 2	2:2
07.04.24	Riga 2 - Ogre United	0:0

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