The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Riga Mariners 29.6%
Draw 22.9%
BFC Daugavpils 47.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.9%
21.9%
41.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38%
21.3%
40%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Riga Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Riga Mariners's form might have worsened.
BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BFC Daugavpils's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Riga Mariners than the current prediction. (+8.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Riga Mariners, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BFC Daugavpils, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Riga Mariners - BFC Daugavpils Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Semetovs R. (G) 7. Bokans E. 16. Caune M. 15. Gauracs E. 9. Grazis A. 29. Lazarevs A. 19. Owusu R. 10. Pavlovskis A. 12. Poluhovics A. 23. Sinelnikovs A. (C) 21. Stuglis E.
12. Beks J. (G) 6. Barkovskis N. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 97. Kivinda D. 37. Mihalcovs G. 4. Mukwelle W. 5. Papa 19. Pinaskins E. 8. Skrebels R. 20. Taty C. 11. Yakubu J.
Substitutes
27. Anohins I. 22. Avdejevs D. 25. Gvasalia G. 6. Karklins K. 20. Kolenda M. 35. Kurakins V. (G) 14. Pavlenko E. 24. Sinelnikovs A. 3. Urujevs R.
77. Aizups R. 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 2. Baikovs R. 66. Bujanovs K. 27. Kopilovs M. 42. Saveljevs A. 1. Saveljevs J. (G) 85. Voitkevics R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Kivinda D. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Grazis A. ⚽, Owusu R. (A),
25', 2 - 1, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Grazis A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 3 - 1, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Grazis A. (A),
52', Barkovskis N. ↓, Ayebadiepreye D. ↑,
57', 3 - 2, Kivinda D. ⚽,
65', Sinelnikovs A. ↓, Karklins K. ↑,
65', Caune M. ↓, Kolenda M. ↑,
67', Kivinda D. 🟨,
76', Gauracs E. ↓, Urujevs R. ↑,
86', Yakubu J. ↓, Aizups R. ↑,
90+4', Karklins K. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 3, Ivanovs E. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
94', Owusu R. ↓, Pavlenko E. ↑,
107', Pinaskins E. 🟨,
119', Pinaskins E. ↓, Kopilovs M. ↑,
120+1', Aizups R. 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Kopilovs M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Stuglis E. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Taty C. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Bokans E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Mukwelle W. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Pavlovskis A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Kivinda D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Grazis A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Ivanovs E. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Karklins K. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Papa (Penalty Awarded),
6, Kolenda M. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Aizups R. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Pavlenko E. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Skrebels R. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Lazarevs A. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Riga Mariners has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Daugavpils's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
Recently, Daugavpils has had a series of home games.
In this match, Daugavpils is seen as the favorite.
The teams have not played against each other recently.
Last Results with these Odds
BFC Daugavpils - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Semetovs R. (G) 
Owusu R. 
Kivinda D. 
Mukwelle W. 
Papa 
Taty C. 
Yakubu J. 
Gvasalia G. 
Kolenda M. 
Voitkevics R. 
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