Match Info

Virsliga - Round 18

Date: 16 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	BFC Daugavpils		Super Nova

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.30	3.90
	1.91	3.30	3.55
	1.83	3.68	4.33
	1.88	3.62	3.84	Watch
	1.80	3.30	3.90
	1.82	3.64	4.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.93)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	3.93 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFC Daugavpils
50.1%

Draw
26.5%

Super Nova
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.1%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27.2%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Daugavpils will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Super Nova will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Daugavpils: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 8. Skrebels R. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 11. Yakubu J. 7. Sylla M. 9. Traore A. 15. Ndjiki R.	90. Veisbuks D. (G) 21. Tihonovics M. 25. Oss M. (C) 5. Cirulis J. 6. Emsis E. 14. Facu 20. Ndiaye I. 22. Skadmanis K. 10. Lizunovs V. 9. Bamba 27. Pathe N.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 99. Aronisko D. (G) 3. Baikovs R. 22. Garzha A. 97. Kivinda D. 27. Kopilovs M. 42. Saveljevs A. 20. Taty C. 26. Vibans R.	29. Baghdasaryan A. 23. Barkovskis N. 19. Grikovs A. 3. Iida R. 8. Maksimovs K. 31. Petrovics T. (G) 16. Romanovs K. 24. Sitjakovs R. 18. Vasilevskis M.
Coaches
Kurbatov K.	Rafalskis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Traore A. ↓, Garzha A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Skadmanis K. ↓, Grikovs A. ↑,
71', Pathe N. ↓, Sitjakovs R. ↑,
88', Bamba ↓, Iida R. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Daugavpils is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35:35	0	39
6	Super Nova	30	10	5	15	29:40	-11	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	0:1 ✺
21.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTLWL
- Super Nova FC
Latvian Virsliga
12.06.26	Liepāja - Super Nova	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Super Nova - RFS	1:2 ✺
24.05.26	Riga - Super Nova	3:0 ✺
20.05.26	Grobiņa - Super Nova	0:2 ✺
16.05.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
27.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:1
25.10.25	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	2:2
02.08.25	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
01.06.25	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	4:1
15.04.25	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	1:1
23.09.23	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	0:1
05.07.23	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	2:0

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