Match Info

Virsliga - Round 20

Date: 25 June 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	BFC Daugavpils		Riga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.75	4.60	1.38
	6.75	4.90	1.32
	8.4	5.7	1.32
	7.06	5.22	1.36	Watch
	6.00	4.50	1.40
	6.33	4.80	1.36	Watch
	6.1	4.2	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.63 ↓ (6.83)	4.85 ↑ (4.5)	1.36 (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFC Daugavpils
13.8%

Draw
18.9%

Riga
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.3%

20.1%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.9%

19.5%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Riga than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

BFC Daugavpils - Riga Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Riga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Riga will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 11. Yakubu J. 8. Skrebels R. 9. Traore A. 15. Ndjiki R.	91. Orols F. (G) 13. Jurkovskis R. 34. Cernomordijs A. (C) 33. Paulo Eduardo 17. Salazar A. 5. Wassom K. 99. Caio Ferreira 18. Oulad M'Hand S. 4. Galo O. 7. Aouani R. 19. Badamosi M.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 99. Aronisko D. (G) 3. Baikovs R. 14. Dauksts R. 97. Kivinda D. 27. Kopilovs M. 19. Pinaskins E. 7. Sylla M. 26. Vibans R.	40. Ankrah A. 22. Diop M. 8. Iago Siqueira 70. Juan Christian 44. Kazainis M. (G) 21. Musah B. 11. Pena B. 23. Tonisevs M. 1. Zviedris K. (G)
Coaches
Kurbatov K.	Gula A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Wassom K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wassom K. ↓, Ankrah A. ↑,
46', Caio Ferreira ↓, Diop M. ↑,
47', Ivanovs E. 🟨,
62', Ivanovs E. ↓, Pinaskins E. ↑,
73', Aouani R. ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
82', Ndjiki R. ↓, Kivinda D. ↑,
85', Oulad M'Hand S. ↓, Musah B. ↑,
85', Galo O. ↓, Iago Siqueira ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 0.

In recent matches, Daugavpils has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Riga is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Riga has had a series of home games.

In this match, Riga is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 11:45. (average 0.6:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:19. (average 0.5:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88:30	58	76
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
20.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Super Nova	0:0 ✺
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTTTL
- Riga FC
Latvian Virsliga
21.06.26	Riga - Liepāja	4:0 ✺
17.06.26	Riga - RFS	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	Ogre United - Riga	1:4 ✺
29.05.26	Riga - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
24.05.26	Riga - Super Nova	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
08.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Riga	1:3
14.03.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	4:2
29.09.25	BFC Daugavpils - Riga	0:1
06.07.25	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
14.05.25	BFC Daugavpils - Riga	0:1
29.03.25	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:2
19.10.24	BFC Daugavpils - Riga	0:5

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