Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 11

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Riga Mariners		Mārupe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.90	4.50
	1.39	4.55	5.7
	1.36	4.71	6.14
	1.58	4.01	4.7	Watch
	1.34	4.65	6.05
	1.37	4.96	6.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.81)	4.46 ↑ (3.85)	5.65 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga Mariners
63.5%

Draw
20.4%

Mārupe
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

23.6%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

22%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Riga Mariners's performance.

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mārupe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga Mariners than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Riga Mariners that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mārupe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Riga Mariners - Mārupe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Owusu R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
84', 2 - 0, Pavlovskis A. ⚽, Grazis A. (A),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 and 6)

Riga Mariners has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Mārupe has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Riga Mariners may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Riga Mariners might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Riga Mariners won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Riga Mariners won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Riga Mariners	21	14	5	2	50:23	27	47
6	Marupe	21	9	2	10	34:32	2	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga Mariners
Latvian Cup
20.06.26	Riga Mariners - JDFS Alberts	1:0 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
14.06.26	Skanstes - Riga Mariners	0:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
30.05.26	RFK RFS - Riga Mariners	0:11 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
23.05.26	Riga Mariners - Metta	2:2 ✺
16.05.26	Riga Mariners - Valmiera	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWTW
- Mārupes SC
Latvian Cup
19.06.26	Mārupe - Aliance	4:2 ET ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
14.06.26	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
30.05.26	JFC Viola - Mārupe	1:2 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
23.05.26	Mārupe - Rīgas FS 2	1:4 ✺
17.05.26	Riga 2 - Mārupe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
09.08.25	Riga Mariners - Mārupe	3:1
12.04.25	Mārupe - Riga Mariners	1:2

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