Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
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Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
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Slovenia	Sport TV1
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Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 16
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 14
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Rijeka		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.6	4.1
	1.82	3.55	4.15
	1.88	3.66	4.43
	1.76	3.87	4.42	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	1.86	3.65	4.16
	1.8	3.6	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.09)	3.63 ↑ (3.31)	4.23 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rijeka
51.7%

Draw
26%

Celje
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

27.9%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.5%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rijeka's performance.

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celje might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rijeka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	17.9%	12.8%

Rijeka - Celje Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Rijeka will win (votes: 27 - 69.2%). Celje will win (votes: 5 - 12.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rijeka: 54.7% – 83.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Celje (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rijeka will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Rijeka (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Celje (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Zlomislic M. (C) 22. Orec A. 45. Majstorovic A. 6. Radeljic S. 34. Devetak M. 19. Vignato S. 26. Dantas T. 8. Petrovic D. 14. Gojak A. 18. Adu Adjei D. 10. Fruk T.	1. Leban Z. (G) 3. Vuklisevic D. 44. Bejger L. 2. Juanjo Nieto 6. Tutyskinas A. 13. Daniel P. 16. Vidovic I. 8. Kvesic M. (C) 10. Sturm D. 20. Iosifov N. 9. Kovacevic F.
Substitutes
91. Bodetic N. 30. Bogojevic B. 9. Cop D. 51. Husic A. 4. Jankovic N. 77. Juric A. 2. Kitin L. 23. Lasickas J. 17. Menalo L. 20. Ndockyt M. 25. Thaqi D. 99. Todorovic A. (G)	11. Avdyli M. 42. Boben M. 15. Castro D. 7. Jevsenak F. 12. Kolar L. (G) 17. Kotnik A. 71. Lisakovich V. 99. Poplatnik M. 94. Pozeg R. 5. Vodeb G.
Coaches
Sanchez V.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Majstorovic A. 🟨,
40', Juanjo Nieto 🟨,
45+1', Petrovic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Adu Adjei D. ⚽, Radeljic S. (A),
61', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Juric A. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Petrovic D. ⚽,
73', Daniel P. ↓, Jevsenak F. ↑,
73', Vuklisevic D. ↓, Avdyli M. ↑,
74', Gojak A. ↓, Menalo L. ↑,
76', Tutyskinas A. 🟥,
78', 3 - 0, Fruk T. ⚽, Vignato S. (A),
83', Vignato S. ↓, Lasickas J. ↑,
83', Petrovic D. ↓, Ndockyt M. ↑,
83', Fruk T. ↓, Jankovic N. ↑,
88', Kvesic M. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
88', Vidovic I. ↓, Kotnik A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 4.

Rijeka is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Celje has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rijeka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rijeka is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Rijeka: Kreilach D. (Injury) Skoric M. (Injury)

There will not play in Celje: Hrka D. (Yellow Cards) Sluga S. (Inactive) Vukasovic N. (Inactive) Zabukovnik M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:5. (average 3.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Rijeka won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:5. (average 3.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
06.12.25	Rijeka - Vukovar 91	3:1 ✺
Croatian Cup
03.12.25	Mladost Ždralovi - Rijeka	1:4 ✺
Croatian HNL
30.11.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Rijeka - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
22.11.25	Rijeka - Hajduk Split	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWTTW
- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
07.12.25	Celje - Primorje	4:1 ✺
Slovenian Cup
04.12.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje	1:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
30.11.25	Celje - Koper	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Sigma Olomouc - Celje	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
22.11.25	Domžale - Celje	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.03.23	Rijeka - Celje	1:1
29.06.19	Rijeka - Celje	2:1
05.07.17	Rijeka - Celje	5:1
26.01.17	Rijeka - Celje	3:2
02.09.16	Rijeka - Celje	1:0
02.07.13	Rijeka - Celje	8:0

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