Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare) (Cachoeiro de Itapemirim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Rio Branco AC ES		Porto Vitória

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.2
	2.26	2.9	3.27	Watch
	2.3	2.7	3.25
	2.25	2.83	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.12)	2.86 ↓ (3.1)	3.26 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Branco AC ES
40.5%

Draw
31.7%

Porto Vitória
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

29.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

30.7%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Branco AC ES has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Porto Vitória has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Branco AC ES than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto Vitória than the current prediction. (-1%)

Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Allan Camilatto (G) 26. Breninho 4. Darlan Santos (C) 25. David Lopes 11. Gui Mendes 14. Matheus Castelo 22. Murilo Henrique 9. Neto Oliveira 5. Romarinho 23. Thainler 8. Ze Mateus	1. Rafael Mariano (G) 5. Gama 8. Henrique Melo 3. Joao Victor 2. Kellyton 4. Lucas Peres 11. Matheus Firmino 9. Pedro Felipe 10. Renato Henrique (C) 7. Rian Felipe 6. Thallyson
Substitutes
88. Alex Galo 10. Alisson Farias 7. Bruno Peres 15. Carlinhos 99. Edu 35. Gabriel Bernard (G) 17. Gregorio P. 16. Inacio 3. Matheus Mega 19. Rafael 2. Ronaldo 20. Victor Braga	19. Adriano Bispo 12. Aydhan Martins (G) 16. Cardoso K. 13. Ferrugem 17. Josue 21. Luiz Henrique 14. Matheus Guedes 15. Matheus Santos 20. Miguel 25. Renie 22. Taleco 18. Victor Rangel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Matheus Firmino ⚽,
45+1', David Lopes 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Romarinho ↓, Alex Galo ↑,
46', Ze Mateus ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
46', Thainler ↓, Bruno Peres ↑,
53', Henrique Melo ↓, Matheus Santos ↑,
64', 🟨,
70', Rian Felipe ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
70', Pedro Felipe ↓, Victor Rangel ↑,
74', David Lopes ↓, Edu ↑,
81', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
87', Breninho ↓, Alisson Farias ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Branco AC ES won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rio Branco AC ES could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Rio Branco AC ES won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Branco AC ES won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Rio Branco AC ES - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 42.62%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Branco AC ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
21.02.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Rio Branco-VN - Rio Branco AC ES	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Forte Rio Bananal	0:0 ✺
04.02.26	Capixaba SC - Rio Branco AC ES	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Noroeste	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTTWL
- Porto Vitória
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
21.02.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Porto Vitória - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Noroeste - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
21.02.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1
24.01.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	1:0
Brazilian Serie D
12.07.25	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	0:1
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
28.05.25	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	2:2
Brazilian Serie D
03.05.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
05.04.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	2:0
01.04.25	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:0

Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide