Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista A3 - Round 14

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday


	Rio Branco de Americana		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.4	4.5
	2	2.95	3.8
	1.98	2.96	3.8
	1.97	3.14	3.82	Watch
	1.96	3.08	3.78
	2	2.95	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.69)	3.08 ↓ (3.5)	3.92 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Branco de Americana
47.2%

Draw
29.6%

Comercial SP
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

26.1%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

26.9%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Branco de Americana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Branco de Americana's form might have worsened.

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Branco de Americana than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Branco de Americana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Rio Branco de Americana - Comercial SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Luketa ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Jean Pablo ⚽,
63', 3 - 0, Felipe Muranga ⚽,
69', Luizao 🟥,
90+1', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4).

Rio Branco is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Comercial SP is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Comercial SP could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Rio Branco is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Branco de Americana
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
04.03.25	Rio Branco de Americana - União Suzano	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Itapirense - Rio Branco de Americana	1:0 ✺
26.02.25	Rio Branco de Americana - Desportivo Brasil	2:3 ✺
22.02.25	União São João - Rio Branco de Americana	1:0 ✺
19.02.25	Bandeirante - Rio Branco de Americana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLLL
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
05.03.25	Comercial SP - Bandeirante	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Comercial SP - EC São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
26.02.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Comercial SP - Francana	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	Sertãozinho - Comercial SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTLTT

Rio Branco de Americana - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide