Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arturo Cumplido Sierra Stadium (Sincelejo)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Rionegro Águilas		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.3	5
	1.92	3.05	4.7	Watch
	1.9	3	5.35
	1.88	2.94	5.18	Watch
	1.7	3.2	5.5
	1.83	3.23	4.72	Watch
	1.92	3.05	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.69)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	4.99 ↓ (5.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rionegro Águilas
51.2%

Draw
30%

Unión Magdalena
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

28.1%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

19.9%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rionegro Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rionegro Águilas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Magdalena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rionegro Águilas: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rionegro Águilas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farinez W. (G) 30. Lara Vasquez N. 2. Rodriguez S. 5. Hernandez D. 32. Mena J. 26. Lozano D. 27. Mancilla H. 28. Celis G. (C) 23. Caballero J. 11. Yony Gonzalez 20. Salazar J.	31. Restrepo E. (G) 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 2. Perez R. (C) 5. Payares M. 30. Mosquera D. 26. Tello J. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 10. Sarmiento J. 8. Sanchez V. 21. Marquez R. 28. Mercado J.
Substitutes
90. Benitez Hernandez R. A. 6. Escobar Salcedo J. 34. Guerra Navarro S. (G) 19. Morelo W. 22. Rivas J. 8. Salazar T. 9. Vasquez A.	7. Aleman J. 22. Barreto O. 17. Blanco R. 20. Giraldo J. 34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 3. Mera D. 6. Ortiz D.
Coaches
Florentin G.	Garcia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Rodriguez S. 🟥,
21', Sanchez V. 🟨,
24', Celis G. 🟨,
34', Mosquera D. ↓, Aleman J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Perez R. 🟥,
53', Sanchez V. ↓, Mera D. ↑,
58', Salazar J. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Yony Gonzalez (Pen),
84', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
84', Marquez R. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
84', Sencion Rodriguez C. E. ↓, Ortiz D. ↑,
84', Mera D. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Vanegas Zuniga O. L. ⚽, Aleman J. (A),
90+4', Celis G. ↓, Benitez Hernandez R. A. ↑,
90+4', Caballero J. ↓, Salazar T. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rionegro Águilas won 2.

Recent matches Rionegro Águilas is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Unión Magdalena is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Rionegro Águilas is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Rionegro Águilas won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Rionegro Águilas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
11.04.25	Deportivo Cali - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Llaneros SA	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Rionegro Águilas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Millonarios - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TLTWL
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
12.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Boyacá Chicó	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
14.09.23	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	2:1
02.04.23	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:1
22.09.22	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	2:0
26.03.22	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
06.10.19	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	1:1
13.04.19	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	0:1

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