Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ulloa D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Unión Magdalena		Boyacá Chicó

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	6.25	Watch
	1.77	3.2	4.6
	1.64	3.5	6	Watch
	1.83	3.29	5.07
	1.66	3.35	6.1	Watch
	1.62	3.3	5.8
	1.67	3.44	6.33	Watch
	1.64	3.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.79)	3.37 ↑ (3.28)	5.77 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
55.8%

Draw
27.9%

Boyacá Chicó
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

28.6%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

28.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Boyacá Chicó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Unión Magdalena - Boyacá Chicó Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión Magdalena: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restrepo E. (G) 3. Mera D. 2. Perez R. 5. Payares M. 30. Mosquera G. 22. Barreto O. 28. Mercado J. 24. Cantillo F. (C) 10. Sarmiento J. 21. Marquez R. 8. Sanchez V.	1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 6. Aedo A. 3. Riascos K. 30. Ojeda J. 18. Herrera J. 7. Arango E. 10. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 19. Lozano F. 27. Londono K. 14. Banguero E. 9. Molina J.
Substitutes
17. Blanco R. 9. Diaz K. 20. Giraldo J. 34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 26. Tello J. 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L.	20. Arango W. 26. Banguero A. 28. Camargo E. 29. Colon S. 23. Denis D. (G) 21. Pimentel J. 24. Valencia R.
Coaches
Pinto J.	Torres R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 🟨,
21', Mercado J. 🟨,
42', Arango E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mercado J. ↓, Sencion Rodriguez C. E. ↑,
61', Banguero E. ↓, Pimentel J. ↑,
61', Ramirez Raigosa D. A. ↓, Arango W. ↑,
61', Arango E. ↓, Valencia R. ↑,
67', Marquez R. ↓, Diaz K. ↑,
67', Barreto O. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
75', Mera D. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Payares M. ⚽, Sarmiento J. (A),
83', Londono K. ↓, Camargo E. ↑,
85', Blanco R. 🟨,
86', Aedo A. ↓, Colon S. ↑,
88', Payares M. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Molina J. (Pen),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 13).

Unión Magdalena is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Boyacá Chicó is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Unión Magdalena could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Unión Magdalena is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Magdalena won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Magdalena won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Cali	2:2 ✺
25.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
20.02.25	Unión Magdalena - Millonarios	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLLT
- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
10.03.25	Deportivo Cali - Boyacá Chicó	0:0 ✺
28.02.25	Boyacá Chicó - Rionegro Águilas	1:1 ✺
21.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Boyacá Chicó	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Boyacá Chicó - Junior Barranquilla	0:2 ✺
12.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
14.08.23	Boyacá Chicó - Unión Magdalena	0:0
10.05.23	Unión Magdalena - Boyacá Chicó	0:0
Colombian Primera B
30.10.21	Boyacá Chicó - Unión Magdalena	1:0
21.09.17	Boyacá Chicó - Unión Magdalena	3:0
20.03.17	Unión Magdalena - Boyacá Chicó	1:2

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