Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 20

Date: 13 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Alberto Grisales (Rionegro)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Rionegro Águilas		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.28	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.48
	3.14	2.94	2.34	Watch
	2.18	3.18	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (3.14)	3.1 ↑ (2.94)	3.17 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rionegro Águilas
39.4%

Draw
30.6%

Deportes Tolima
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

31.3%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

31.5%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rionegro Águilas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rionegro Águilas's performance.

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Tolima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rionegro Águilas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Tolima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Rionegro Águilas - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rionegro Águilas: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Rionegro Águilas (votes: 2 - 50%). Deportes Tolima (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Banguera G. (G) 4. Puerta M. 5. Hernandez D. 29. Lopes H. 32. Mena J. 23. Caballero J. 16. Pineda J. 22. Lozano F. (C) 37. Ramirez M. 24. Avalo Trejos J. E. 99. Obregon J.	35. Neto Volpi (G) 71. Arrieta C. 17. Torres M. 5. Mera J. 20. Hernandez J. 15. Nieto J. (C) 32. Guzman S. 25. Moreno Y. 18. Perez K. 13. Gonzalez M. 24. Parra Osorio A.
Substitutes
90. Benitez Hernandez R. A. 18. Cadavi G. 34. Guerra Navarro S. (G) 26. Lozano D. 27. Mancilla H. 19. Morelo W. 7. Plata A. 9. Rivaldo J. 8. Salazar T.	12. Azcarate J. (G) 11. Lencina G. 27. Martinez M. 14. Mena J. 4. Quinones J. 42. Quinones J. 29. Riascos L. 8. Valencia E. 33. Velasquez S.
Coaches
Risueno J.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Gonzalez M. ⚽, Perez K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Moreno Y. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
46', Puerta M. ↓, Lozano D. ↑,
59', Ramirez M. ↓, Benitez Hernandez R. A. ↑,
62', Perez K. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
67', Nieto J. ↓, Riascos L. ↑,
67', Lozano F. ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
67', Gonzalez M. ↓, Velasquez S. ↑,
68', Caballero J. ↓, Plata A. ↑,
78', Hernandez D. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Valencia E. ⚽,
83', Arrieta C. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Benitez Hernandez R. A. ⚽,

Preview

Deportes Tolima is Qualified for Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rionegro Águilas won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Rionegro Águilas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rionegro Águilas won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:30. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rionegro Águilas won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Rionegro Águilas - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.33%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.35%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
08.11.25	Atlético Nacional - Rionegro Águilas	2:1 ✺
28.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas	1:5 ✺
18.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWWT
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
07.11.25	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	3:1 ✺
30.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Cali	2:1 ✺
20.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	1:2
02.11.24	Rionegro Águilas - Deportes Tolima	0:1
12.04.24	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
02.12.23	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	0:1
18.11.23	Rionegro Águilas - Deportes Tolima	0:4
29.07.23	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	1:1
06.02.23	Rionegro Águilas - Deportes Tolima	4:2

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