Match Info

J3 League - Round 7

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Roasso Kumamoto		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	2.75
	2.16	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.44	3.10	3.00
	2.29	3.17	3.14	Watch
	2.40	2.95	2.95
	2.34	3.34	2.92	Watch
	2.27	3.15	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.48)	3.15 ↓ (3.2)	2.93 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roasso Kumamoto
39.7%

Draw
29.1%

Matsumoto Yamaga
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

27.9%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

28.5%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matsumoto Yamaga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sato S. (G) 4. Yakushida R. 24. Ri T. 5. Kobayashi K. 41. Omoto Y. 25. Nasu K. 13. Iihoshi A. 37. Ozawa H. 29. Mishina N. 7. Fujii K. 14. Ishihara O.	21. Tomizawa M. (G) 5. Shirai T. 4. Minoda K. 6. Noda H. 22. Saso K. 14. Rikiyasu S. 40. Higuchi D. 11. Kaneko S. 13. Murakami H. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.
Substitutes
9. Bae Jeong-Min 10. Katori Y. 22. Matsuda E. 15. Mishima S. 17. Nagai S. 27. Negishi K. 3. Onishi R. 23. Sato Y. (G) 11. Watanabe R.	38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 43. Kaneko K. 30. Kitazume K. 23. Koma R. (G) 36. Matsumura G. 8. Sawazaki R. 17. Taguchi Y. 15. Takano R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Sato R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
67', Ishihara O. ↓, Bae Jeong-Min ↑,
75', Shirai T. 🟨,
79', Tanaka S. ↓, Taguchi Y. ↑,
79', Murakami H. ↓, Sawazaki R. ↑,
80', Fujii K. ↓, Katori Y. ↑,
80', Ozawa H. ↓, Nagai S. ↑,
87', Saso K. ↓, Takano R. ↑,
87', Kaneko S. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
89', Kobayashi K. ↓, Onishi R. ↑,
89', Omoto Y. ↓, Matsuda E. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 1.

Kumamoto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Matsumoto Yamaga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Matsumoto Yamaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Kumamoto	10	3	5	2	7:6	1	14
13	Yamaga	10	2	5	3	9:11	-2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Roasso Kumamoto - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 36.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J3 League
12.09.26	Fukushima United - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Nara Club	2:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
30.08.26	Kochi United - Roasso Kumamoto	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Nagano Parceiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WTWWL
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
13.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Shonan Bellmare	4:3 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ehime	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
23.09.18	Matsumoto Yamaga - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0
30.06.18	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
06.06.18	Matsumoto Yamaga - Roasso Kumamoto	2:1 penalties
Japan J2 League
07.10.17	Matsumoto Yamaga - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0
16.04.17	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:0
03.11.16	Matsumoto Yamaga - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0
27.02.16	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0

Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide