Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 17

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Paul-Lignon (Rodez)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rodez		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.28	3.35	2.88
	2.4	3.5	3.09
	2.24	3.59	2.95	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.9
	2.33	3.35	2.94	Watch
	2.28	3.33	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.6)	3.37 ↓ (3.4)	2.94 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodez
40.7%

Draw
27.6%

Guingamp
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

27.5%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

27.1%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rodez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guingamp could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	20%	55%

Rodez - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Rodez will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Guingamp will win (votes: 11 - 55%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guingamp: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Braat Q. (G) 25. Galves N. 5. Jolibois C. 4. Magnin M. 3. Lipinski R. (C) 15. Jean-Lambert E. 8. Younoussa W. 6. Mendes J. 26. Benchamma S. 9. Nagera K. 18. Balde I.	16. Ortola A. (G) 2. Koffi E. 7. Gomis D. 18. Nair S. 21. Mbemba F. 11. Sagna A. 8. Sidibe K. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 23. Ourega D. 9. Mafouta L. 20. Hatchi J.
Substitutes
11. Arconte T. 12. Corredor M. 13. Issanchou Roubiou C. 22. Joly O. 24. Laurent L. 16. Margueron L. (G) 28. Saka M.	29. Abdallah A. 39. Ahile T. 1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 27. Kielt S. 3. Matumona J. 6. N'Landu D. 24. Ott G.
Coaches
Santini D.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Mafouta L. (Penalty Awarded),
16', Hatchi J. 🟨,
24', Mendes J. 🟨,
33', Hatchi J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Lipinski R. ⚽, Jean-Lambert E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Jolibois C. 🟨,
68', Mbemba F. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
70', Nagera K. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
71', Mendes J. ↓, Joly O. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Balde I. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Mafouta L. ↓, Ott G. ↑,
78', Ourega D. ↓, Abdallah A. ↑,
79', Louiserre D. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
79', Sidibe K. ↓, N'Landu D. ↑,
80', Ott G. 🟨,
86', Joly O. 🟨,
86', Sagna A. 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Kielt S. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Younoussa W. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
89', Jean-Lambert E. ↓, Laurent L. ↑,
90', Saka M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 0.

Rodez has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guingamp is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Rodez has had a series of away games.

Rodez is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rodez: Achi M. (Inactive) Laurent L. (Inactive) Pelon A. (Inactive) Tebily H. (Leg Injury) Tourraine M. (Inactive) Trouillet A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Guingamp: Hemia A. (Knee Injury) Ott G. (Inactive) Planeix I. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Rodez won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Rodez - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.92%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodez AF
French Ligue 2
06.12.25	Troyes - Rodez	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Canet Roussillon - Rodez	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
21.11.25	Rodez - Dunkerque	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
15.11.25	Lavaur - Rodez	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 2
07.11.25	Grenoble - Rodez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTWL
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
05.12.25	Guingamp - Annecy	0:3 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Ancienne Château-Gontier - Guingamp	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
22.11.25	Amiens - Guingamp	1:2 ✺
Coupe De France
15.11.25	St Colomban-Locminé - Guingamp	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Guingamp - Pau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
17.01.25	Guingamp - Rodez	3:0
13.09.24	Rodez - Guingamp	1:2
23.01.24	Guingamp - Rodez	3:3
11.11.23	Rodez - Guingamp	0:0
28.01.23	Rodez - Guingamp	0:1
04.10.22	Guingamp - Rodez	0:0
15.03.22	Rodez - Guingamp	1:1

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