Match Info

J3 League - Round 22

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium (Okinawa)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Ryūkyū		Nagano Parceiro

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.2	3.4
	2.52	3.1	2.58	Watch
	2.63	3.25	2.66
	2.57	3.21	2.72	Watch
	2	3	3.5
	2.6	3.33	2.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.34)	3.18 ↑ (3.17)	2.91 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
39%

Draw
29.1%

Nagano Parceiro
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

29%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

29.3%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for Nagano Parceiro have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ryūkyū will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ryūkyū (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Ryūkyū (1.98) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Nagano (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ryūkyū (votes: 3 - 60%). Nagano (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sato H. (G) 3. Kikuchi S. 14. Suzuki J. 4. Fujiharu H. 15. Araki R. 18. Hiramatsu S. 13. Iwamoto S. 20. Nagai S. 23. Sota K. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 89. Takagi D.	21. Matsubara S. (G) 16. Ishii K. 7. Ono Y. 3. Tomita K. 33. Ando K. 5. Hasegawa Y. 46. Koga S. 8. Kondo T. 77. Thales 28. Fujikawa K. 11. Shin K.
Substitutes
9. Asakawa H. 17. Einaga T. 39. Ihara A. 5. Kamiya K. 50. Kawashima K. (G) 55. Koki Y. 7. Motegi S. 28. Tsuha J. 47. Wade M.	9. Fujimori R. 47. Kato K. 2. Sakai S. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 25. Tanaka K. 18. Ukita K. 10. Yamanaka R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Tomidokoro Y. ⚽, Takagi D. (A),
43', 2 - 0, Takagi D. ⚽, Tomidokoro Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Shin K. ↓, Ukita K. ↑,
60', Thales ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
70', Nagai S. ↓, Kamiya K. ↑,
76', Takagi D. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
76', Iwamoto S. ↓, Koki Y. ↑,
77', Kondo T. ↓, Fujimori R. ↑,
77', Ando K. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
83', Ishii K. ↓, Sakai S. ↑,
86', Tomidokoro Y. ↓, Ihara A. ↑,
86', Fujiharu H. ↓, Motegi S. ↑,
90+5', Ihara A. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 16 and 15)

Ryūkyū is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nagano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ryūkyū won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ryūkyū won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 3:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ryūkyū - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.2%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Nagano Parceiro - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.82%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
20.07.25	Fukushima United - Ryūkyū	3:3 ✺
12.07.25	Ryūkyū - Gainare Tottori	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Tochigi City - Ryūkyū	3:2 ✺
28.06.25	Ryūkyū - Gifu	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Ryūkyū	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLWW
- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
19.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Nagano Parceiro	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Osaka	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Kochi United - Nagano Parceiro	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Nagano Parceiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:1
19.10.24	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:1
14.04.24	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	4:3
30.09.23	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	2:2
11.06.23	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:2

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