Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	2.98	5.35
	1.71	3.16	6.27
	2.22	2.06	7.16	Watch
	1.69	2.98	5.87	Watch
	1.75	3.15	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.8)	2.87 ↓ (2.99)	5.85 ↑ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
51.5%

Draw
32.6%

Floresta
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

30.3%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

31.3%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

São Bernardo - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Junior Oliveira (G) 97. Augusto 26. Dudu Miraima 7. Echapora 11. Felipe Azevedo 90. Felipe Garcia 35. Foguinho 3. Helder Maciel (C) 28. Joao Paulo 95. Para 2. Rodrigo Ferreira	12. Dheimison (G) 17. Diego Matos 8. Guilherme 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 4. Julio Vaz 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 14. Rodriguinho 30. Romarinho 13. Thomas Kayck
Substitutes
1. Alex Alves (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 32. Bastos R. 5. Bruno Silva 20. Emerson Santos 21. Hugo Sanches 70. Lucas Reis 13. Matheus Salustiano 25. Pedro Carrerette 59. Pedro Felipe 17. Romisson 31. Victor Andrade	16. Davi Castro 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 15. Igor Dutra 22. Milton Raphael (G) 6. Rafael Furlan 5. Robson Alemao 7. Ruan 19. Rubens 11. Thiaguinho 3. Vitao
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Leston Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Pablo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pablo ↓, Guilherme Martineli ↑,
64', Para ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
64', Romarinho ↓, Ruan ↑,
72', Guilherme Martineli 🟨,
73', Foguinho ↓, Romisson ↑,
76', Romisson 🟨,
78', Guilherme Nunes ↓, Robson Alemao ↑,
80', 🟨,
81', 0 - 1, Jeam ⚽,
88', Jeam ↓, Rubens ↑,
88', Diego Matos ↓, Rafael Furlan ↑,
90+5', Mateus Ludke 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet and 4)

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Floresta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Bernardo is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.4%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
21.09.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Caxias - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTTLT
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
21.09.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Londrina - Floresta	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Floresta - Caxias	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Figueirense - Floresta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
21.09.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	0:0
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0
24.08.24	São Bernardo - Floresta	2:0
08.06.23	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0

Upcoming Matches