Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 2

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Caxias		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	2.95	3.25
	2.05	3	3.45
	2.16	3.12	3.61
	2.38	2.88	3.25	Watch
	2.08	2.96	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.07)	2.98 ↓ (3.08)	3.43 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
42.5%

Draw
30.7%

São Bernardo
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

29.5%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

29.2%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Caxias - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Caxias will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caxias: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Caxias (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 3. Alisson 25. Calyson 11. Iago 5. Lorran 6. Marcelo 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes 19. Welder	12. Junior Oliveira (G) 32. Bastos R. 5. Bruno Silva 11. Felipe Azevedo 3. Helder Maciel (C) 21. Hugo Sanches 28. Joao Paulo 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 4. Rafael Forster 17. Romisson
Substitutes
44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 51. Giovane Gomez 4. Gustavo Henrique 9. Gustavo Nescau 17. Igor Torres 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 31. Matheus Silva (G) 99. Mossoro 39. Taua 7. Yann Rolim	1. Alex Alves (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 97. Augusto 26. Dudu Miraima 7. Echapora 90. Felipe Garcia 35. Foguinho 8. Lucas Buchecha 13. Matheus Salustiano 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 31. Victor Andrade 10. Vitinho
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Marcelo 🟨,
28', 🟨,
32', Welder 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Welder ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,
78', Marcelo ↓, Kelvyn ↑,
83', 🟨,
84', Alisson 🟨,
86', Tomas Bastos ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
87', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
90', 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Caxias could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
07.09.25	Floresta - Caxias	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Maringá - Caxias	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Caxias - Brusque	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Tombense - Caxias	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Caxias - ABC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLTW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	São Bernardo - Figueirense	0:3 ✺
10.08.25	Retrô Brasil - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
18.05.25	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:0
04.08.24	São Bernardo - Caxias	2:0

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