Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 3

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Floresta		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	2.62	2.88
	2.79	2.67	3.12
	2.50	2.94	2.98	Watch
	2.54	2.79	2.8	Watch
	2.35	3.2	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.35)	2.84 ↓ (3.2)	2.94 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
36.1%

Draw
32.5%

São Bernardo
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

28.9%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

27.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Floresta - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (G) 17. Diego Matos 8. Guilherme Nunes 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 4. Julio Vaz 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 14. Rodriguinho 30. Romarinho 13. Thomas Kayck	12. Junior Oliveira (G) 97. Augusto 5. Bruno Silva 90. Felipe Garcia 35. Foguinho 3. Helder Maciel (C) 28. Joao Paulo 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 17. Romisson
Substitutes
16. Davi Castro 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 15. Igor Dutra 22. Milton Raphael (G) 6. Rafael Furlan 5. Robson Alemao 29. Rodrigo 7. Ruan 19. Rubens 11. Thiaguinho 21. Vitinho	6. Arthur Henrique 32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 7. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 11. Felipe Azevedo 21. Hugo Sanches 13. Matheus Salustiano 25. Pedro Carrerette 84. Vanderlei (G) 31. Victor Andrade
Coaches
Leston Junior	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Helder Maciel 🟨,
25', Foguinho 🟨,
45', Julio Vaz 🟨,
45+4', Bruno Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Guilherme Nunes 🟨,
65', Bruno Silva ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
65', Pedro Felipe ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
82', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Floresta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Bernardo is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Floresta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Floresta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Floresta - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.38%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
14.09.25	Londrina - Floresta	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Floresta - Caxias	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Figueirense - Floresta	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Confiança - Floresta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTWLL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
13.09.25	Caxias - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	São Bernardo - Figueirense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0
24.08.24	São Bernardo - Floresta	2:0
08.06.23	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0

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