Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 1

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)


	Floresta		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	2.65	2.8
	2.35	2.72	3.1	Watch
	2.36	2.82	3.72
	2.87	1.95	4.71	Watch
	2.26	2.82	3.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.37)	2.59 ↓ (2.84)	3.6 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
37.8%

Draw
36.2%

Caxias
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

32.1%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

31.9%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Floresta - Caxias Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (G) 17. Diego Matos 8. Guilherme Nunes 10. Gustavo Xuxa 31. Icaro 9. Jeam 4. Julio Vaz 2. Mateus Ludke 14. Rodriguinho 30. Romarinho 13. Thomas Kayck	1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 3. Alisson 25. Calyson 11. Iago 5. Lorran 6. Marcelo 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos 23. Vinicius Guedes 19. Welder
Substitutes
16. Davi Castro 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 15. Igor Dutra 20. Lucas Mingoti 22. Milton Raphael (G) 28. Pablo 6. Rafael Furlan 29. Rodrigo 19. Rubens 11. Thiaguinho 21. Vitinho	44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 9. Gustavo Nescau 17. Igor Torres 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 4. Lucas Cunha 99. Mossoro 15. Ronei 32. Victor Golas (G) 7. Yann Rolim
Coaches
Leston Junior	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Thiago Ennes 🟨,
23', Gustavo Xuxa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Diego Matos 🟨,
57', Lorran 🟨,
63', Vinicius Guedes ↓, Mossoro ↑,
63', Welder ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
67', Gustavo Xuxa ↓, Pablo ↑,
74', Lorran ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
74', Iago ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
78', Romarinho ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
78', Jeam ↓, Rubens ↑,
86', Mateus Ludke ↓, Igor Dutra ↑,
86', Calyson ↓, Igor Torres ↑,
86', Diego Matos ↓, Pablo ↑,
90+3', Mossoro 🟨,
90+5', Guilherme Nunes 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Floresta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Floresta - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Figueirense - Floresta	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Confiança - Floresta	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Floresta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Maringá - Floresta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLWT
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Maringá - Caxias	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Caxias - Brusque	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Tombense - Caxias	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Caxias - ABC	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Ypiranga - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.04.25	Caxias - Floresta	1:0
30.06.24	Floresta - Caxias	2:1

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